The US Democrats are being a little too optimistic about the mid-term elections

With two months to go until the US mid-term elections, the prevailing narrative is that of a Donald Trump in crisis in the polls and a Congress that is on the verge of falling into the hands of the Democrats. The House of Representatives, which is being completely renewed, would be easy prey for the opposition, whilst the renewal of a third of the Senate may offer the Democrats some chance of securing a majority. But now that the primaries to select candidates have concluded and the final sprint is underway, this narrative betrays a touch too much optimism on the part of the anti-Trump camp. Even setting aside the Senate, which will be decided by the very last vote, the question beginning to circulate amongst pollsters and political analysts concerns the House of Representatives: are we really certain it is on course to pass into Democratic hands?

This issue is crucial for the country’s future, because there is a huge difference between navigating the final two years of the Trump administration and the 2028 presidential election with a president who continues to control the entire Congress or, alternatively, with the executive branch checked and balanced by one or both chambers of a different political persuasion. Deluding themselves into thinking they have already won the House and focusing on the Senate, in this scenario, could prove to be a rude awakening for the Democrats. An interesting analysis on this point was provided in the Washington Post by Henry Olsen, an elections expert at the Ethics and Public Policy Centre – a conservative think tank, though not one that is overly sympathetic to Trump.

The first element that risks misleading readers is Trump’s current approval rating of 40 per cent (or less). Historically, such an unpopular president leads his party to a crushing defeat. In 2018, Trump stood at 45 per cent and the Republicans lost 40 seats. In 2010, Barack Obama stood at 45 per cent and the Democrats lost 63 seats. With Trump below that threshold, logic would suggest that disaster is already upon him. Yet it is not quite that straightforward. Major mid-term electoral waves occur when the ruling party loses seats that were already teetering on the brink of switching sides. In 2018, the Republicans were defending 25 constituencies that Hillary Clinton had won two years earlier: they lost 22 of them. Today, that reservoir has dried up. Thanks to polarisation and a round of constituency redrawing, the Republicans control only eight seats won by Kamala Harris in 2024. Redistricting has structurally shifted the map to the right. On 3 November, voters will go to the polls to elect all 435 seats in the House of Representatives; 218 are needed to secure a majority. The median seat – the 218th, which decides control of the House – was, under the 2024 maps, Arizona’s 1st constituency, won by Trump by 3.1 percentage points. It is now Virginia’s 1st constituency, won by a margin of 4.9 percentage points. To secure a majority, the Democrats must win that constituency and all those that Trump won by smaller margins.

At present, the polls suggest that the Democrats can count on 208 seats, the Republicans on 207, whilst twenty seats remain too close to call. The Democrats, however, have made things difficult for themselves during the primaries, as they have often nominated candidates who are very far to the left – particularly those from the socialist wing – which makes it harder to contest the seats that are too close to call.

The 6.4-point lead in national polls attributed to the Democrats in the midterm elections seems substantial, but it may not be enough, as this figure fails to reflect the reality of individual contests. There are Republican incumbents who are difficult to unseat. Brian Fitzpatrick has held a constituency on the outskirts of Philadelphia – which Harris won – for ten years, and even retained it during the ‘blue wave’ of 2018. Mike Lawler represents a New York constituency that Joe Biden won by ten points, and which is home to one of the country’s largest Jewish communities: how many traditionally Democratic Jewish voters will switch sides in the face of the pro-Palestinian shift within part of the party?

The wind is blowing in the Democrats’ favour, but that does not mean they have already won. Yet the signals they are sending out are often distracting, as if 3 November were a foregone conclusion. In recent days, for example, the Democratic Party has been focusing on drawing up the map for the 2028 primaries, choosing a new route that will start in South Carolina and then head to Nevada, moving New Hampshire to the third round and pushing Iowa well further down the list – that is, the two states that traditionally were the first. This is a revolution that could have significant implications for the selection of the candidate who will face the ‘Make America Great Again’ (MAGA) movement in the race for the White House.