Putin returns to courting Trump, who has remained silent on the threats to Europe

Russky Island lies off the coast of Vladivostok, in Russia, and until 2012 everything that took place on the island was secret; nothing was to be seen from Vladivostok. Then a bridge was built, followed by the Eastern Economic Forum, where the Kremlin leader, Vladimir Putin, began to welcome his Asian allies, promote investment and showcase Russia’s Asian face. The Forum concluded yesterday, as it does every year, with a speech in which the Kremlin leader chose the right words for his audience of international guests. 

He knows when to stir things up and when to calm them down, and in the presence of Asian politicians and investors, it was not the right time to promote his intentions for a long, gruelling, painful war at any cost. He presented a conciliatory stance: an end to the conflict in Ukraine is certainly possible, but peace initiatives are complicated by the ‘acts of state terrorism’ committed by the Ukrainian government, such as the announcement of an operation to block Russian airports with swarms of drones, which is proving successful – Moscow’s Vnukovo Airport was closed for many hours – but which Putin had to play down in the eyes of potential investors. No one invests in an unstable country, which is why Putin sought to reassure people regarding the war – there will be no mobilisation; we do not need it, he said – as well as on the economy, investment and even relations between Russians and Americans. Shortly before Putin delivered his speech, Donald Trump, speaking from the Oval Office, had described the conflict in Ukraine as a ‘stupid war’, appearing almost offended that, after having brought so many wars to an end – eight, he repeated – Russia’s war against Kyiv was capriciously refusing to end when the President of the United States decides it should. Putin said: Russia maintains contact with the Americans and hopes for a restoration of relations, but this also depends on Washington, and “Donald Trump is ready to carry out this sort of positive and constructive work”. Trump is very fond of the image of the ‘builder’, and Putin has shown he knows how to use the right words with the American president: he unsparingly displays the art of flattery, believing that Trump does not understand the line between praise and mockery. Putin has now decided to resume his attempts to curry favour with Trump, and before doing so, he will have realised that, amongst all the leaders who expressed solidarity with Germany following the failed attack in Leipzig and the government’s unprecedented decision to directly accuse Moscow, the President of the United States is notably absent.

Trump has remained silent; he has not commented, nor has he shown any concern. Yesterday, he even said that he would demand that the Europeans repay the money the Biden Administration has spent on supplying weapons to Ukraine. Throughout Trump’s second term, there have been no references to the increased security risks facing his NATO allies, and whilst the Kremlin sends second-rate spies – inadequately trained, recruited on Telegram and paid in cryptocurrencies – to plant explosive devices across Europe, the Pentagon announces reductions in the US military presence in allied countries. Putin picks up on the signals; he relishes this silence regarding Russian threats against NATO, and, seeing an opening, brings up the idea of the economic windfall that Americans and Russians could reap if they did business together.

Last winter, the White House chief had set his mind on achieving peace; he had organised a flurry of meetings over the Christmas period, but had been met with a ‘no’ from the Kremlin in response to every proposal put forward. Faced with this refusal, Trump put on a front of indifference; he even showed sympathy for Zelensky, though this amounted to nothing more than ambitious promises, whilst at the same time not hindering Kyiv’s defence plans in any way: the Ukrainian president announced that he wants to ground civil aviation in Russia, but the Americans have not responded. In the coming days, Trump’s envoys, Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, are expected to travel to Moscow and also to Kyiv – marking their first visit to the Ukrainian capital – but it appears that the ‘stupid war’ holds no interest whatsoever for the White House chief, and the Russians, who had hoped for Trump’s help in containing Ukraine, are disappointed. The silence regarding the sabotage incidents in Europe, however, has emboldened Putin to try again, and to send a message from Russky Island regarding the future of Russia’s relations with Trump.