How far could Kyiv’s plan to block Russian airports go?

An eye for an eye is the basic principle that now governs every Ukrainian counter-move. For the enemy, the invader, there are no concessions: if Kyiv suffers, Moscow cannot prosper. If Vladimir Putin and his army decide to launch a bombing campaign to suffocate Ukraine’s major cities, preventing their inhabitants from sleeping at night and bringing all their activities to a standstill during the day, the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, announces that not even Russia will be able to breathe. Putin wants to strangle the Ukrainians; the Ukrainians respond: if we go down, you’re coming with us. Yesterday, Zelenskyy made a simple yet pointed announcement: “We wish to warn every airline using Russian airspace, every insurer and anyone still using Russia’s main airports: Russian airspace is becoming very unsafe.” The immediate result of the announcement was: more than forty flights cancelled; the Turkish airline Pegasus Airlines has suspended all services; other airlines have already warned that there may be diversions. Zelensky continued: “When our partners come forward to negotiate, we are ready to ensure that the airspace is clear for a certain period. For now, whilst the war continues, Russian airspace is for Ukrainian drones, not for civil aviation.” 

Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andrii Sibyha has officially notified the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) that Russian airspace is unsafe: “We urge everyone to avoid it… Against the backdrop of Russia’s drastically escalating terror against Ukraine, Russian airspace is becoming increasingly unsafe. Our responsible decision is to notify the ICAO, all airlines and governments to exercise caution – even though Russia refuses to fulfil its responsibility to inform them. We wish to prevent unintentional incidents. The war is coming home to Russia. Ukraine is exercising its inherent right to self-defence under Article 51 of the United Nations Charter.”

In recent weeks, Moscow has been striking Ukrainian cities by day, paralysing them with constant air-raid alerts triggered by jet-powered drones – weapon systems far more difficult to intercept than those Russia has been using throughout the summer in the Black Sea to block traffic and prevent the transport of grain from Ukrainian ports. The Ukrainian economy cannot afford to forgo grain sales; Moscow’s aim is to ensure that no insurance company is willing to cover the costs of transport through Black Sea waters: so far, it has succeeded in emptying the port quays, striking the merchant ships that have ventured out and even causing casualties amongst the crews. Now Kyiv is applying the same strategy to the skies: it aims to clear them, discourage insurers from covering the route, and ensure that the airports in Moscow, St Petersburg, Yekaterinburg, Rostov-on-Don and elsewhere are left without aircraft, according to a plan that Ukraine had devised months ago. The Atlantic reported how Zelensky’s team of experts had approached the president, presenting him with a new potential operation to corner Russia and force it to agree to negotiations. The operation’s code name was ‘M&M’s’, a reference to the small drones that would be launched into Russian airspace to disrupt air traffic, swarming in circles like M&M’s. The plan envisaged drones equipped with artificial intelligence-based guidance systems flying in swarms towards Russian airports, forcing airlines to abandon the route. It aimed to create a clear and spectacular standstill – Russian airports had been forced to close in the past, but the Ukrainian plan did not seek a sporadic standstill, but rather a total and sustained paralysis of Russian airspace. Zelensky postponed the attack—one of the ideas proposed by former Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov—fearing an incident involving international passengers. When a Russian airport comes to a standstill, a ‘kaver’ situation is declared, which means ‘carpet’. Ukraine’s objective is to bring the Russian airport system to a standstill, and whilst Zelensky may have had reservations, following the latest attacks on cities and Russian attempts to cripple Ukraine’s economy – where no aircraft have flown since 24 February 2022 due to Russian missiles and drones – he has chosen to announce a plan to do in Russian skies what Moscow does in the Black Sea: block, strangle, and ensure that no one feels safe enough to land at a Russian airport any more, just as no one dares to sail in Ukrainian waters. The hope is that sooner or later a sufficiently influential official—of whom there are few—will enter Putin’s office in the Kremlin and state: “We have a problem; we must stop this.”