First the jihadists (twice), now the coup plotters. Does it still make sense to stay in Niger?

The attempted coup on Saturday, which led many to believe the military junta in Niger was on the verge of collapse, is far from being a closed chapter. The rift that has opened up within the Armed Forces risks playing into the hands of al-Qaeda and ISIS terrorists, who are operating with impunity in the north of Tillabéri and on the outskirts of the capital, Niamey, attacking civilians and military personnel. In January, it was the Islamic State that took control of the capital’s airport; in June, it was al-Qaeda’s turn. On Saturday, it was the coup plotters’ turn. This is where the contingent of 300 Italian soldiers from the MISIN mission is stationed. 

The mutiny was fuelled by the discontent felt by the younger Nigerien officers, many of whom are serving on the front line against the jihadists. A few hours before the attempted coup, the military junta led by Abdourahamane Tchiani had reached an agreement to release several dozen al-Qaeda fighters, sparking outrage amongst the officers on the front line. However unsuccessful the Russian mercenaries’ campaign against Islamist terrorists in Niger has been to date, it was only their intervention – which inexplicably took place several hours after the mutiny had begun – that prevented the junta from falling and stopped the jihadists from taking advantage of the general chaos. This is a scenario that may well recur in the future, as no one can guarantee that discontent amongst the troops on the front line will not resurface.

Alongside the Africa Corps, Algeria also took action, sending four Su-30Mka fighter jets, an Il-78 refuelling aircraft and an Il-76 cargo plane on Sunday in support of the Nigerien junta. At Niamey airport, Prime Minister Ali Lamine Zeine welcomed the first Algerian military personnel to be deployed on an overseas mission since Yom Kippur in 1973. The reason why, more than half a century on from the last time, Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune took the historic decision to abandon his country’s policy of neutrality is that any collapse of the military junta in Niger would have jeopardised Algeria’s security. Dalia Ghanem, a senior analyst at the German Marshall Fund, explains to Il Foglio that the decision to intervene is a clear message from Tebboune: “Algeria’s strategy is a defensive and realist one, aimed at preventing a chaotic collapse and a power vacuum in a neighbouring country with which Algiers shares a border stretching some 900 kilometres. Algeria now pursues a more assertive and pragmatic foreign policy and recognises the military authority in Niamey as the only entity currently capable of exercising territorial control.”

Preserving the status quo in the Sahel is not solely in Russia’s interests. For years, there has been fierce competition between Morocco and Algeria for control of the region’s resources. Niger is the world’s seventh-largest producer of uranium, Mali is Africa’s third-largest producer of gold, and Burkina Faso possesses vast manganese deposits. For Morocco, which boasts a major mining sector and holds 70 per cent of the world’s phosphate reserves, securing access to these minerals is a priority, whilst for Algeria they represent resources that can help diversify its economy, which is heavily reliant on fossil fuels. “It is also about safeguarding critical strategic infrastructure, such as the trans-Saharan gas pipeline, and reaffirming Algeria’s role as a key pillar of regional security,” says Ghanem.

But whilst for Algiers, Niger is a strategic hub that jeopardises its own security, for Italy the deployment of an armed contingent to Niamey – the only Western one following the withdrawal of American and French forces from the region – currently presents many risks in the face of limited benefits. Launched in 2018, the Misin mission’s main objective is to train the Nigerien Armed Forces to “support the stabilisation of the area and the strengthening of territorial control capabilities”. Saturday’s attempted coup, the failed progress of the war against the jihadists, and the lack of any particular benefits in terms of monitoring migration flows – migrant trafficking between the Sahel and North Africa continues undisturbed – raise a number of doubts about the usefulness of the Italian mission. Saturday’s incident marked the third time since the start of the year that our contingent has found itself at the centre of an attack on Base 101, which is located within Niamey airport and just a few metres from where the mercenaries of the Russian Africa Corps are quartered. Although Defence Minister Guido Crosetto stated on Saturday afternoon that our troops were not involved in the fighting and that “there is no evidence to suggest that our personnel are exposed to imminent danger”, some doubts remain. Whilst Crosetto was issuing the statement, Base 101 had already been in the hands of the coup plotters for hours.