The island of Larak is a long-standing Iranian obsession

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ response to the American attack on the island of Larak was: there are no limits that Iranian missiles cannot overcome. Since last June, when the US Vice-President, J. D. Vance, was negotiating with the Iranians on a Memorandum for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and for sixty days of talks during which to reach an agreement on Tehran’s nuclear programme, exchanges of attacks between the United States and the Islamic Republic have flared up, then subsided, then flared up again. Behind the trajectories of the missiles in the Middle East, a stalemate is taking hold in which the Iranian regime is convinced it can seize the Strait of Hormuz and block it whenever it sees fit. On Sunday, the US military decided to strike Larak – thereby breaking with the Administration’s decision to prioritise economic warfare over military action – because it had identified a new threat and recognised the regime’s readiness to tighten its grip on Hormuz. According to the United States, the Iranians intended to lay new mines on the seabed of the Strait, putting shipping – which, albeit slowly, was beginning to stabilise – at even greater risk.

Whenever Iran sees its advantages dwindling, it takes action, and the United States – which does not wish to reignite the conflict – springs into action the moment it sees the Pasdaran attempting new manoeuvres. But Larak is a long-standing obsession of Tehran’s: an island whose access to the public has always been controlled by the regime, which allows only around a hundred families to live there. The population density is not high, but Larak’s importance has grown now that Iran has revived its role as master of the Strait and is determined to do everything it can to bolster it as a weapon of blackmail against the United States. Larak lies off Iran’s southern coast and has a military outpost from which the regime controls shipping lanes, but to which it wishes to assign an even stronger role: as part of its agreement with Oman to control traffic in the Strait, it wants ships to pass close to Larak, which is one of the islands situated at the mouth of the Strait of Hormuz, between the Iranian mainland and the coast of Oman. Larak was not discovered by the Americans on Sunday, during the operation to stop the mine-layers, but it has been under surveillance because control of the Strait begins precisely on that island, which the regime had previously attempted to turn into a welcoming destination for tourists – promoting its beaches and diving opportunities – in an effort to appear open to the world. Today, the seabed off Larak poses more dangers than it offers enjoyment, and U.S. operations are focusing on attempting to strip the Iranians of every means of holding on to Hormuz, controlling the Strait and holding shipping to ransom. Only without control of Hormuz will the regime be able to consider negotiations on other issues. Tehran oscillates between moments when it wants to appear invincible, ready to undermine American power, and moments of silence. It now promises revenge and complains that Washington is allowed to have bases in the Middle East whilst the Iranians are criticised for their military presence in Hormuz, without admitting that this presence serves to threaten global trade.

Donald Trump was confident that his negotiating skills would win over the regime; now, according to a report in the American press, he no longer believes that Tehran is ready for a deal. Economic strategy still takes precedence over military strategy. In response to Bessent’s question about what the US expects from Iran, the Treasury Secretary replied: “Their economy does not necessarily have to collapse. We just need to ensure the regime comes to its senses.”