Having lost its complete grip on Hormuz, Iran is now suddenly taking a fancy to the memorandum

The US Secretary of Energy, Chris Wright, said that “nine million barrels a day” are shipped through the Strait of Hormuz via a service operating under US military protection. Adding a further “five to seven million barrels a day” leaving the Gulf states via alternative routes brings the total to “around fifteen million barrels a day”, according to Secretary Wright. In slower years, fifteen million barrels a day was the daily average through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s grip on Hormuz therefore appears to have loosened; the regime’s internal funds are beginning to run low, and the top political leaders of the Islamic Revolution are urging the hawks in power to find a way out of the conflict. Having breached the agreement signed in Islamabad, Tehran now seems to be longing for a return to the memorandum of understanding. The latest phase of the conflict has seen an ever-increasing number of ships passing silently through Hormuz, with 200 vessels crossing the Strait last week, according to data from the UK Maritime Trade Operations Centre. This represents a 400 per cent increase in traffic over the past two weeks. More and more ships are switching off their transponders as they sneak through the Strait under the escort of the US Navy.

Iran’s oil exports, on the other hand, have fallen to almost zero, due to the renewed US blockade on ports and Donald Trump’s ‘economic D-Day’ measures. According to recent satellite imagery, there has been little or no activity observed at the Iranian oil hub on Kharg Island, leaving Iran with few options to prop up its already collapsing economy, with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent threatening further sanctions. Abdolnaser Hemmati, Governor of the Central Bank of Iran, confirmed on 19 August during a live television interview that Iranian oil exports had come to a complete standstill. But the Iranian economy has been collapsing for forty-seven years. Evidently, it operates in another dimension unknown to the laws of economics. Hawks such as Rezaei and the Revolutionary Guards claim they can withstand any pressure whilst inflicting damage on the United States and its Arab allies in the region. Meanwhile, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has repeatedly warned that the economic pressure is taking its toll, whilst cautioning against a “humiliating” surrender “in the face of the enemy”.

Tehran may be tempted by what analysts call ‘the October surprise’. Elections are due to take place in Israel on 27 October and in the United States on 3 November. This makes late October a potentially dangerous window for the regime’s manoeuvres. Tehran could attack Israel directly or provoke a serious escalation through one of its terrorist proxies, such as a ballistic missile strike large enough to overwhelm Israeli defences, killing dozens of civilians in Tel Aviv or Haifa. Or a terrorist attack carried out by an Iranian proxy against an Israeli population centre. Tehran would be counting precisely on that Israeli response, which could trigger a wider regional escalation and create serious political and economic complications for Trump and the Republicans as they fight to retain control of the House and Senate just a few days later. Forty-six years ago, an Iranian ayatollah exploited an American election and helped to weaken an incumbent president (Jimmy Carter) by taking hostages at the embassy.