Meloni could save NATO from Trump

During the Cold War, one of the Soviet Union’s main objectives was to divide the Western alliance by driving a wedge between Europe and North America. Moscow failed, for a number of reasons that contributed to the West’s victory. Today, mired in the conflict with Ukraine, Russia is following the old Soviet playbook, in the hope of splitting NATO. Inexplicably, Donald Trump believes that he and Vladimir Putin are friends – a misconception that Putin readily exploits, not only to divide the alliance but also by waging a ‘grey zone’ war to test its weaknesses.

Despite the apparent success of the NATO summit in Ankara, Trump still neither understands nor appreciates the benefits of the Alliance. His short attention span; his ad hoc and transactional approach even to matters of vital national interest; and his self-absorption are not the ingredients of effective leadership or a long-term vision. Unfortunately, the Europeans have failed to fill this void. Some, such as the German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, have called for ‘independence’ from Washington. They would be shocked and dismayed if they actually achieved it. Merz himself is now facing domestic political difficulties, which limit his ability to exercise authority within the EU, let alone project it beyond its borders. Other European leaders, too, are subject to similar constraints. The new British Prime Minister, Andy Burnham, has no experience in international affairs. France’s Emmanuel Macron is a lame duck, his Napoleonic ambitions now in tatters. Europe remains adrift in the chaos of its attempts to manage illegal immigration within and across the continent.

European leaders generally understand the threat posed by Russia’s invasions of Ukraine, but seem remarkably indifferent to Iran’s nuclear proliferation and global terrorist threats. It is not yet clear whether they have grasped the threat that Tehran poses to the global economy through its attempt to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz. Nor do most Europeans regard China or North Korea as a threat, despite their evident support for Russia’s war in Ukraine. Trump, by contrast, is not deeply concerned about Russian aggression against Ukraine. He does recognise the threat from Iran, even if he has mishandled it. Whether he fully acknowledges the Chinese and North Korean threats depends on the day and the person he is speaking to. Trump’s strategic disarray and his confusion regarding the threats facing the West are considerably exacerbated by his ignorance of history and his belief that relations between states are simply a reflection of the personal relationships between their leaders. Thus, for Trump, if he is friends with Putin or Xi Jinping, then the United States’ relations with their countries are good, and vice versa. We can be certain that, at the age of eighty, Trump will not change for the remainder of his presidential term.

In this scenario, what position is left for Italy and Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni? The Italian economy (the third largest in the EU, the eighth largest globally), its status as a G7 member and its military spending (estimated at 2.8 per cent of GDP in 2026) provide a solid foundation for Italy to assume a more prominent role within NATO and, more broadly, in Western affairs than it has played in recent years. The time has therefore come – should Meloni decide to run for office – to try to persuade Europe to adopt a strategic perspective with global reach. Iran’s missile and nuclear programmes pose a real threat to Europe. Italy is already within Tehran’s reach.

Terrorism sponsored by the Iranian state is not merely a risk to Europe, but a reality. Rome has already paved the way for the EU to add the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to the list of terrorist organisations, but this is only the beginning. Although we cannot know who will succeed Trump, European NATO leaders – and Meloni in particular – must do more to protect the Alliance until he leaves the White House. It was a mistake, for example, to restrict the use of US bases during the recent hostilities with Iran. Although the precise legal status of each base varies from country to country, the underlying political understanding for all bases is that they form part of the United States’ global power-projection capabilities. Restricting US operations has merely further fuelled Trump’s disaffection with NATO, without significantly hindering what the US forces have been doing. What was the point? Ironically, the restrictions imposed by the Europeans were a display of petulance very much in Trump’s style.

Meloni should overlook Trump’s questionable personal behaviour, such as his criticism of the Pope and his claim that she had ‘begged’ him for a photograph. She should focus on the wider interests of Italy and the West. Of course, this is easier said than done, but there is no other European leader on the horizon capable of fulfilling this role. The opening of the United Nations General Assembly in September offers Meloni the opportunity to speak beyond the EU’s borders and to address the free world’s security concerns in broader terms. Trump will not understand what she is saying, but others in America will. If Meloni remains in office after the 2027 Italian elections, she will outlast Trump politically and could play an important role in revitalising transatlantic relations. She should seize this opportunity.