The Caspian Sea routes that Trump does not want to see

 The waters of the Caspian Sea link five countries: Russia, Iran, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan. As it has no external outlets, no naval force not belonging to one of these states can control maritime traffic. No Western ships sail on the Caspian Sea, and this isolation makes its waters ideal for trade between Moscow and Tehran. Few places on earth link the destinies of Europe and the Middle East as closely as the Caspian Sea, and an investigation by NBC News – based on a document provided by a European government – shows how the maritime route across the salt lake allows for a continuous exchange of military equipment between Russian and Iranian ports. The regime of the Islamic Republic of Iran was the first to supply Russia with drones to strike Ukraine, as well as the know-how to manufacture them. For a long time, Tehran remained disappointed because the favour granted to Russia – complete with the signing of a comprehensive strategic partnership treaty between the two countries – had never been reciprocated at the moment of greatest need, when it was the Iranians who wanted to wage war themselves, without hiding behind their regional allies, scattered across the countries of the Middle East. They did not remain dissatisfied for long, and in recent months supplies have been arriving from the waters of the Caspian Sea – the very supplies Tehran needs to replenish its arsenal following the war that began on 28 February.  Behind Iran’s response to the war waged by the United States and Israel lies Moscow, which – though initially reluctant – had refused to heed its Iranian ally’s requests for help, particularly regarding supplies, but subsequently had to play its part, both by providing intelligence – the map of US military bases in the Middle East, according to the Washington Post, was Russian and so it was Moscow that explained to Tehran what to target – and with weapons: Russia now has an increasingly massive production capacity, particularly of drones, which are no longer the Shaheds of four years ago as sent by the Iranians, but have been improved and upgraded. Intelligence is passed via secret channels, whilst the weapons are transported via the Caspian Sea, traversing waters to which no NATO country has access.

Not even Israel or Ukraine can do so, but they have sought their own ways to make headway across the shores of the enclosed sea. At the end of March, Israel struck the Iranian port of Bandar Anzali because the facility was also being used to transport weapons from Russia. The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) had also targeted patrol boats and a corvette, but shipments of military equipment continued, according to a document seen by NBC News. The Ukrainians had begun operating in the Caspian Sea before Israel’s intervention and with greater consistency.

Kyiv has always targeted strategic infrastructure and Russian ships in the Caspian Sea and, for the first time, at the end of July, it also directly struck an Iranian ship suspected of carrying military equipment. Ukraine has maintained a high state of alert, fearing a reprisal from Tehran which, for the time being, appears to have been averted, but the action was exemplary and a way of showing the United States that its war in the Middle East cannot be won without passing through the Caspian Sea and taking action against Russia, which has created a well-organised axis of regimes that support one another, study one another and learn to wage war – a situation that suits everyone. Restricting Moscow’s actions and disrupting its trade at this juncture is tantamount to cutting off the serpent’s head. The United States, however, continues to want to keep each scenario separate, and US President Donald Trump cultivates separate relationships with the Kremlin leader, Vladimir Putin, and his other allies, from Chinese leader Xi Jinping to North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un, who, according to the White House chief, has never threatened the West.

The Caspian Sea is the place where everything comes together, the physical space where Moscow and Tehran meet, where the two wars feed off one another. According to the Wall Street Journal, the Islamic Republic of Iran is prepared for a protracted conflict with the United States; it is unwilling to negotiate and scoffs at the bluster and U-turns of US President Donald Trump, who yesterday published a map showing the Strait of Hormuz marked as an area under American control. The Islamic Republic dismissed him as deluded and, in the afternoon – for the first time in months – launched two missiles at the United Arab Emirates, which had been the main target in the first phase of the war precisely because of their proximity to both Israel and the United States. Before the missiles were launched and the sirens sounded in Dubai, Trump had spoken on the phone with the Emirati president, Mohammed bin Zayed. Iran wanted once again to demonstrate that it possesses weapons and ingenuity, that it does not fear retaliation, and that it matters little what is actually happening within the regime.

This is not the first time the regime has been forced into survival mode, and obviously, to do so, it must be able to rely on replenishing its arsenals, which have been depleted or buried by two years of war. Much of the support and revitalisation of the Islamic Republic’s war machine comes from Moscow. Without Russian aid, the Iranians would have had less information on targets to strike and even fewer weapons to use.