I am the Likud

The polls continue to show Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu trailing ahead of the 27 October election. His party continues to perform well, but not well enough to secure a majority and form a coalition to govern Israel once again. But Netanyahu has accustomed us to dramatic twists and turns and has lost none of his prowess as the king of Israeli politics: no one would dare categorically rule out a final comeback on his part, and he has just demonstrated that without him, there is no Likud – the primaries held on 16 August ended exactly as he wanted. The contest was between 120 members vying for 24 seats.

First place goes to him, as chairman of Likud, who will therefore certainly enter the Knesset; the next six seats go to members of the Central Committee, who are always appointed by the current Prime Minister. The contest was therefore for the subsequent seats, and given that the polls do not predict many seats for Likud, securing a top position amongst the prospective MPs was crucial. Bibi managed to propel his own people to the top whilst pushing down those he regards as threats, such as the former mayor of Jerusalem, Nir Barkat, who had started an internal power struggle in an attempt to position himself as the party’s alternative voice: he set about courting both moderates and extremists alike, paid advisers, and attempted an internal coup, but the result was poor and he finished in twenty-fourth place; if Likud wins fewer seats, he will have to remain outside the Knesset. Netanyahu is the only one who holds together the party’s moderate core and the extremists, but for the primaries he tried to push the latter aside – a mix of conspiracy theorists and rabble-rousers. He did not fully succeed; some are still set to enter Parliament. The problem is one of legacy: the Likud has now become synonymous with its leader, and the risk is that when Bibi steps down, the party will be torn apart. This is one of the sources of discontent among those who cannot bring themselves to say to Netanyahu: ‘Yes, carry on being king, but you’re destroying the Likud – step aside.’