Trump is now threatening Oman, but by now he has already damaged his own credibility

The sixty days have expired and US President Donald Trump has not secured the agreement with the Islamic Republic of Iran that he sought. Tehran has not yielded on the Strait of Hormuz, nor, of course, on the nuclear programme. The White House chief has reiterated that the objective of the war remains an agreement that would eliminate the Iranian regime’s ability to acquire the bomb, but this has not been achieved within sixty days and now, as previously announced, Trump is expected to order a major military operation – forceful, decisive and capable of compelling the regime to accept the terms. The sixty days were the ‘good’ approach; now the ‘bad’ approach is expected to follow, but it so happened that over the last two months there have been no negotiations; Washington and Tehran have resumed trading barbs, then there was another ceasefire, and the regime has convinced itself that Trump is not serious, so it might as well continue to provoke him, keeping itself ready for the moments when the fighting resumes – though in any case, it will be nothing serious.

This belief is very dangerous, but this is precisely how the regime is reasoning: whilst it claims to have no intention of signing anything with the Americans, it is pursuing negotiations with Oman to assert its power over the Strait of Hormuz through a mechanism for controlling incoming and outgoing shipping lanes, and it wants this agreement to be solely with the Omanis, who would act as the enforcers of Iranian control over traffic in the Strait. Today, Trump threatened Oman, saying he was ready to bomb it if it actually signs this agreement with Tehran. The problem for Washington is that it has currently inflicted self-inflicted damage to its credibility, which is also causing great alarm amongst its Gulf allies. When the American president first took office, they were enthusiastic – during his first term, they had admired his business acumen and his hard line on Iran – but now they are wondering who will protect them from Iran’s forthcoming threats.