Unable to unblock the Strait of Hormuz, the Americans are concerned about the Black Sea

Ukrainian sources have told the Financial Times that on 31 July, the US Vice-President, J. D. Vance, telephoned Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. This is unusual, as Vance is the most hostile figure towards Kyiv within the US administration – he was the architect of last year’s confrontation with Zelensky in the Oval Office and has also boasted of taking pride in the suspension of arms deliveries to Ukraine. Vance called with a request: to halt Ukrainian attacks on the Russian port of Novorossiysk, where the CPC – the oil pipeline linking Kazakhstan’s oil fields to the Russian terminal on the Black Sea – terminates. According to the account given to the British newspaper, the Americans’ fears centred on the fact that Ukrainian attacks on Novorossiysk could further destabilise the oil markets. 

And harming American companies: Chevron and Exxon hold stakes in the CPC and also in the largest oilfield that supplies it, the Tengiz field in Kazakhstan. The United States is unable to resolve the situation in Hormuz, caused by the carelessness with which, at the start of Operation Epic Fury in February, it failed to immediately draw up a plan to prevent the Islamic Republic of Iran from blocking the Strait – which is so vital for oil supplies, and not only that. Now they are considering how not to make the situation worse by exerting leverage and pressure on an ally such as Ukraine, for whom every strike against a Russian oil tanker is a domestic success and a blow to Moscow’s war machine.

Kyiv appears to have accepted Vance’s request, as evidenced by the fact that only limited attacks were recorded in Novorossiysk following the phone call: it is not worth antagonising the Americans at this juncture, particularly whilst Zelensky awaits Donald Trump finally granting the licence for the production of Patriot interceptors in Ukraine. In fact, yesterday Kyiv attacked the port and the nearby military base, and only non-Russian ships and CPC facilities were spared; Moscow’s oil tankers continue to be regarded as targets. Given that the weapons Ukraine uses to operate in the Black Sea are mainly domestically produced – Neptune missiles, naval drones and Palianytsia drones – the US’s ability to influence Kyiv’s strategies is limited. The White House still holds some leverage over Zelensky’s decisions, but the Ukrainian president has chosen not to give in completely to Vance’s demands.

Last June, the US Vice-President negotiated a memorandum with the Iranians to secure a ceasefire that was intended to lead to nuclear talks. Washington and Tehran never reached those negotiations, and the memorandum concluded by Vance – who had been appointed as America’s representative by the Iranians themselves – proved to be a disaster: riddled with loopholes, rife with vagueness, and the ideal framework for ensuring that Tehran regained control of the Strait of Hormuz. That is precisely what happened, and with no other solution in sight for the Strait in the Middle East, the Americans began to look at developments in other waters as well. The Financial Times and Kpler, the company that monitors energy flows, have crunched the figures: last month’s Ukrainian attacks on the CPC and on Russian vessels in the Sea of Azov led Kazakhstan to halt oil shipments via Novorossiysk and doubled transport and insurance rates: in July, the CPC loaded just 1.3 million barrels per day, a drop of over 300,000 barrels per day compared with the previous month.

Much of the war between Kyiv and Moscow is being fought at sea, and Ukraine is recording significant victories. Russia, however, has not stood idly by and is now threatening the grain corridor: by attacking merchant ships passing through the Black Sea en route to Ukraine, it is effectively cutting off traffic to the ports in the Odessa region, which poses a major risk to the Ukrainian economy. This is a form of blackmail; what Russia wants is for Ukraine to stop attacking its ships and ports, to curb its business activities and even to rein in its ‘shadow fleet’, which it uses to circumvent sanctions. Yesterday, the Kremlin leader, Vladimir Putin, also threatened the Europeans, saying that if Russian ships are seized, Moscow will proceed to seize European ones.

The idea that wars are best viewed from the sea seems fitting for the summer season, but Vance’s phone call also reveals that the United States, having failed to resolve the situation in Hormuz, is exerting pressure wherever it can. However, as Kyiv is no longer an ally that can be treated shabbily, Zelensky hopes that, in return for the favour granted regarding Novorossiysk, the United States will respond appropriately by providing Ukraine with the Patriot missiles it needs to protect itself from Russian attacks.