It is now India that is selling fuel to Russia

Last week, for the first time, Russia received fuel shipments from India: according to Bloomberg, which traced the oil tankers’ routes using Kpler data, this is a sign of just how serious the crisis in the Russian petrol market is becoming, a market that has been under threat for months from Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries in Moscow. The first shipment, which arrived in Russia on 5 August, was sold by the Indian company Nayara Energy Ltd, a subsidiary of Rosneft, Russia’s leading oil company; it passed through the Suez Canal and then the Mediterranean thanks to the Kremlin’s ‘shadow fleet’, and further shipments are reportedly on their way. What has changed is that it has always been Russia that has exported fuel to India; after the start of the war in Ukraine, India had become the main importer of Russian oil after China, at discounted prices. Then, for a brief period, New Delhi appeared to have yielded to pressure from the US administration, which last year had imposed the most punitive tariffs on India in retaliation for its purchase of Russian oil.

In reality, India remains heavily dependent on Russia, and in recent months – partly because supplies via the Strait of Hormuz are still limited – imports of Russian oil have not fallen; quite the contrary. In June 2026, they reached an all-time high of 48 per cent by volume and 48.6 per cent by value, accounting for around half of India’s total oil imports: the Russian share has been rising steadily every month since March, that is, since the start of the war in the Middle East. US sanctions do not appear to have deterred buyers, and if the US House of Representatives were to pass Lindsey Graham’s bipartisan bill, tariffs on the main importers of Russian oil and gas would rise to 100 per cent. In that case, Indian refineries may have to rethink their supply strategy; for the time being, however, Russia appears to remain India’s main oil supplier.