The Iranian threat has always been very real, directed against Trump and others

During the NATO summit in Ankara a month ago, both CNN and the Wall Street Journal revealed that Israeli intelligence had warned its American counterparts of an Iranian plot to assassinate US President Donald Trump. According to the Wall Street Journal’s account, Israeli intelligence had identified a new, concrete plan, currently being drawn up, to eliminate the US president. CNN, on the other hand, spoke not of a specific plan, but of a more vague desire reflecting the intentions of certain elements within Tehran’s leadership, such as the new commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Ahmad Vahidi. Following yesterday’s revelations in the Washington Post about the hoax flight on Air Force One, Iran’s threats against representatives of US institutions – and against America in general – are no longer so vague. They never were. 

Since 2020, when Trump ordered the assassination of General Qassem Suleimani, commander of the Pasdaran’s Quds Force, during his first presidential term, the regime has publicly vowed revenge. In 2022, the US Department of Justice indicted Shahram Poursafi, a member of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, for offering $300,000 for the assassination of former National Security Adviser John Bolton, with a second target – later identified as former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo – for whom a reward of up to $1 million had been promised. Bolton and Pompeo had since been assigned enhanced Secret Service protection, which was subsequently revoked by Trump in one of the first acts of his second term as president – he, too, is no stranger to the language of revenge. During the 2024 election campaign, the US Department of Justice revealed allegations concerning a plot to monitor and possibly kill Trump before the election, linked to Farhad Shakeri, a Tehran-based Pasdaran operative who had immigrated to the United States as a child but was subsequently deported in 2008 following a conviction for robbery. He had built up a network of known criminal contacts within US prisons, which he supplied to the Pasdaran for targeted assassinations (including the attempt – which failed three times – on the journalist and dissident Masih Alinejad). In March, Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth announced the killing of Farhad Shakeri in Iran. Around the same time, Asif Merchant, a Pakistani national trained by Iranian intelligence to carry out covert operations in the United States and contract killings of current and former American officials, was also sentenced.

With the war against Iran, threats – including those in propaganda – have become even more visible. In January, Irinn, the all-news channel of Iranian public radio and television (IRIB), broadcast footage of Trump following the Butler assassination attempt in 2024, accompanied by a phrase in Persian: “This time, the target will not be missed”. This is considered the most explicit threat to date issued by an official channel of the regime. Even during the funeral ceremonies for Ali Khamenei, who was killed in the joint US-Israeli attack on 28 February, explicit threatening messages against the American president appeared. In Tehran, placards bearing the English words "KILL TRUMP" were displayed.

Trump has repeatedly stated that he is the top name on the list of potential Iranian targets. However, the threat from Tehran is not limited to the president or his aides; it is also extending, in an increasingly tangible way, to US territory and its infrastructure. In recent days, the Washington Post reported that US authorities are paying increasing attention to possible Iranian operations against critical American infrastructure, and in particular to cyber-attacks linked to Iran against water systems and water treatment plants in at least twelve states. These incidents have not, so far, caused a widespread water supply crisis, but they have highlighted just how vulnerable essential infrastructure serving millions of citizens is. Whilst Trump continues to portray himself as the main target of Iranian retaliation, the US security services are focusing on a potentially much broader threat.