A day of business-as-usual chaos in Libya

It took just a single day – Monday – to remind everyone that Libya is a failed state where any prospect of peace – at least for now – is more of a mirage than the result of sound realism. In less than 24 hours, a crude oil refinery was set alight by a drone in Zawya, on the western coast; the governor of the Central Bank resigned in Tripoli; whilst the head of military intelligence in Benghazi was assassinated. Three seemingly unrelated events and three different cities that paint a perfect snapshot of a country in ruins, rather than that of a reliable partner. In Zawya, armed clashes are a regular occurrence. It is a strategic city. It was from here, in 2011, that the way was paved for the militias that brought about the fall of Muammar Gaddafi. A prospect that even the Prime Minister of Tripoli, Abdulhamid Dabaiba, now fears.

Zawya is home to one of Libya’s main refineries and is linked to the Sharara oil field, which produces around a quarter of the country’s total oil output. It is not just about energy, however, as the town also fuels a significant part of the business involving migrants setting sail for Italy and smuggling operations towards Tunisia. Indeed, Dabaiba has always sought to take control of the town and its trafficking networks. To do so, about a year and a half ago, he attempted to back ‘the Rat’ – as Mohammed Bahroun is nicknamed. According to Dabaiba, Bahroun was the right man to crush the other militias, particularly that of the Awlad Buhmeira tribe, which boasts close ties to the Haftars in the east and controls the refinery. Then, at the start of the year, Dabaiba turned his back on Bahroun and decided instead to back the Awlad Buhmeira. According to Jalel Harchaoui, a Libya expert at the Royal United Services Institute in London, this is linked to the US plan presented in recent months to unify the country and appoint Saddam Haftar, commander-in-chief of the east, as president of Libya. “Bahroun is now surrounded; he knows that Dabaiba is desperate to bring Zawya under his control before Saddam takes power, thereby avoiding the same fate as Gaddafi. Dabaiba does not want to allow a strategic city like Zawya to remain contested, enabling Haftar to use it in the future as a route into Tripoli.” For this reason, a showdown has begun in the coastal town. “Dabaiba wants to go ‘all-in’ on the city just to take control of it,” continues Harchaoui, “but it’s a risky game that could draw in other militias scattered across the country. It is unclear which faction struck the refinery’s diesel depots on Monday night, but what is certain is that Dabaiba is looking for a pretext for a large-scale offensive against the city.”

Whilst in the west there is a risk of oil production being halted, at the very same time in Tripoli, the Governor of the Central Bank, Naji Issa, has unexpectedly tendered his resignation. This is a blow to the country’s monetary stability, as the Central Bank is the only truly unified institution responsible for managing revenue from hydrocarbons, the mainstay of the Libyan economy. Although he gave no explanation, it is likely that Issa’s resignation is linked, once again, to the US plan that led to the creation of a unified budget last April. Despite the rise in oil prices caused by the war in Iran, Issa has failed to honour the commitments he made. Libya is facing a currency crisis exacerbated by the misuse of letters of credit, blackmail by militias demanding ever-higher wages, and the enormous expenditure – amounting to almost 1.5 billion Libyan dinars – on importing fuel from abroad. The devaluation against the US dollar and the political struggle that will now unfold over Issa’s succession – a contest between militias and clans that will be anything but peaceful – leaves Libya’s main economic institution in disarray, the very institution that the Americans considered essential for launching the unification of the east and west.

At around the same time, in Benghazi, a car bomb killed the head of military intelligence for the east, General Fawzi al Mansouri. It had been years since such a brutal attack had been witnessed in Haftar’s stronghold, where security standards are far higher than those in Tripoli. “Al Mansouri is a martyr,” is how he is remembered in eastern Libya. Close to Salafist circles and uninvolved in disputes over money and power, he was among the commanders who launched the main offensives against Tripoli in 2019 and was very close to Saddam and Khalifa Haftar, who placed him in command of the southern forces in Sabha. It is not known who ordered the attack; rumours are circulating about Khaled Haftar, Saddam’s brother and chief of staff, who was said to be disgruntled at having been sidelined by the American plan for Libyan unification, but other possibilities cannot be ruled out, including involvement by ISIS or Russia, which may have sought to slow down the implementation of the military unification plan proposed by the Americans. “Al Mansouri’s death is bad news for Massad Boulos,” says Harchaoui, referring to the White House adviser who devised the Libyan reunification project. “Now the Haftars will have to reassure all their commanders by scaling back the prospects of military unification with the west and the disbandment of the Eastern Armed Forces, which all military leaders fear.” So far, the Boulos plan seems to have produced more victims than winners.