Turkey brings the PKK war to an end, but Erdoğan is the real beneficiary

Erdoğan has succeeded where all his predecessors failed; he has brought an end to the longest low-intensity internal conflict in contemporary history. The law on disarmament and amnesty for Kurdish fighters, passed by Parliament on 10 August following many months of direct negotiations between the government and the commanders of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), represents an extraordinary and historic step forward of significance not only domestically but also regionally, even though it is a legislative measure primarily addressing security concerns and falls far short of granting civil and political rights to the Kurdish community in south-eastern Anatolia, such as the right to education in their own language, the right to citizenship and administrative autonomy for municipalities with a Kurdish majority.

What took place in the plenary session of the Turkish Grand National Assembly is undoubtedly an overwhelming political victory for the Turkish leader, who is seeking the Kurdish vote to secure a third presidential term. The measure was approved by an unprecedentedly large majority: 468 votes in favour and 88 against – a full 68 more than the number required for a constitutional amendment, thus avoiding the need for a referendum. If the president manages to maintain this level of support across the country, with the backing of the Kurdish vote he could be re-elected by a landslide for a fourth term. 

This historic event was marked by an image that, just a few years ago, we would never have imagined seeing: MPs from the ultra-nationalist MHP party – a key ally of Erdoğan’s AK Party and historically the most anti-Kurdish and xenophobic force on the political scene – shook hands with their colleagues from the pro-Kurdish DEM and posed for the customary group photo alongside Erdoğan’s party and the social-democratic opposition, the Kemalists of the CHP. Gone are the days when the MHP and the original Kemalist CHP harboured the age-old dream from the early days of the Republic of a ‘Turkey without Kurds’.

The approved measure, officially entitled the "Law on Strengthening National Solidarity and Social Integration", strongly backed by the AKP-MHP governing alliance, was drafted and enacted with the approval of Abdullah Öcalan, the founder and charismatic leader of the armed PKK party who is serving a life sentence, despite the fact that no amnesty was envisaged for him or for 232 senior leaders. A pardon will be granted only to low-ranking members of the PKK/KCK (Union of Kurdish Communities, a coalition of the four Apoist Kurdish parties), whilst all other illegal non-Kurdish organisations are excluded, such as the Gülen movement – referred to by the government as FETÖ – the Revolutionary People’s Liberation Party-Front (DHKP-C), a far-left terrorist group, and the ISI. However, a de facto amnesty is envisaged in the form of a suspension of sentence for up to a maximum of 15 years for those who have been sentenced to life imprisonment and heavy prison terms.

This new Kurdish peace initiative, following the failed one of 2012–15, is taking place in a highly authoritarian context, with the leaders of the main opposition party, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), having been arrested and put on trial, and hundreds of mayors replaced by trustees, raising doubts as to whether the security policy adopted is in line with democratic standards. The pact that the government has struck with Abdullah Öcalan, the charismatic leader and founder of the armed organisation, is said to involve securing better prison conditions, culminating in him serving the remainder of his sentence at home, thereby repaying Erdoğan for his ‘openness’ and ensuring the necessary votes from the community in the forthcoming elections. Öcalan has made several appeals for disarmament and the dissolution of his armed organisation, calling for a return to dialogue and peace. Weary, ageing and lacking adequate weaponry, the men and women had no choice but to hand over their weapons, preserve what remained of the guerrilla movement in the mountains, hope for the release of some 50,000 Kurdish prisoners held in hundreds of prisons across the country, and continue the struggle for their rights through the political and parliamentary channels they hope will open up. The Kurdish leaders have therefore decided to take a new, unilateral step forward, which may serve as a lifeline for the process they describe as one of ‘peace and democracy’, but which President Erdoğan prefers to call ‘Turkey without terrorism’ in order to reassure the broadly nationalist public; presenting this new ‘opening’ as a ‘security’ operation and therefore one that makes no concessions to an organisation deemed terrorist, which has caused much Turkish bloodshed on the ground.