There is a faster solution to Russian missiles than the Patriots: Ukrainian F-16s

Russia’s latest attacks on Ukraine, involving massive barrages of ballistic missiles, have caused chaos across Kyiv and form part of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s campaign to wear down the will to resist of a free people. “Protection against ballistic missiles is our absolute and constant priority,” said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. However, as long as Ukraine has to rely solely on an ineffective air defence shield, the country will remain vulnerable. Ukraine must be able not only to deflect Russian missiles, but also to strike back at the launchers. Although Ukrainian forces have regained some momentum in a war now in its fifth year, defence against ballistic missiles remains a fundamental weakness. The US-made Patriot system is Ukraine’s only reliable defence against this threat. However, Ukraine does not have enough Patriot batteries and is severely short of PAC-3 interceptors for those it does have. (...) To exploit this vulnerability, Moscow has invested in ramping up production of the Iskander, RM-48U and Zirkon missiles. The Kremlin is likely to resume its efforts to destroy Ukraine’s energy infrastructure shortly. The response to Russia’s strategy has been almost entirely defensive. Ukraine and a coalition of European countries are working on the development of an alternative system called Freyja. US President Donald Trump has stated that he will grant Ukraine a licence to produce Patriot missiles. (...) Each of these moves is positive. However, it will take time – probably years – before they bear fruit.

There is a quicker solution. (...) The Ukrainian fleet of F-16 fighter jets, which has been flying combat missions for two years, consists of aircraft that are dated but still serviceable. However, they are currently not equipped for one of the war’s most strategically important missions: destroying Russia’s mobile ballistic missile launchers before they fire. The reason they cannot carry out this mission is not the aircraft itself, but the weapon and the targeting system. The United States has already approved the sale of 3,350 Extended Range Air-to-Ground Munitions (ERAMs) to Ukraine. These are high-precision air-launched missiles capable of destroying targets under conditions of intense electronic warfare. The ERAMs could provide Ukraine with the capability to strike ballistic missile launchers without exposing pilots to unacceptable risks. Thanks to their long range, the ERAMs will also enable Ukrainian pilots to engage high-value targets such as refuelling centres, ammunition depots, air bases and command centres without having to fly into areas where Russian surface-to-air missile batteries are most concentrated. But the supply of Eram missiles alone is not enough. The missiles are sold with a restriction: they can only be used by older-generation, Soviet-built Ukrainian aircraft, without the ability to dynamically update targets. However, this restriction can be removed within a matter of weeks, not years.

The best course of action is for the US Air Force to prioritise software updates that enable the missile to be fully integrated with the F-16’s payload management and weapon launch systems. This would enable Ukrainian planners to receive updated target positions and to programme an ERAM’s flight path and final target selection before the aircraft takes off, whilst still allowing the pilot to update the coordinates during flight. A quicker but less effective solution would be to fit Ukrainian F-16s with weapon pylons manufactured by the Danish company Terma. These pylons enable the integration of the ERAM system onto the F-16s and will allow for more limited, yet still significant, improvements to the target management process. (...)

The measures required to implement this approach are inexpensive and can be put in place quickly. Furthermore, they directly address not only the threat posed by Russian ballistic missiles, but also the sadistic strategy of targeting civilians that lies behind it. Intercept the missiles at the launcher stage. The technology exists, the platform exists, and the weapon has already been approved for sale. A small change in US policy would make a huge difference in Ukraine’s fight for survival.