The withdrawal of the IDF from Gaza is not a topic

Nickolay Mladenov, the Council’s envoy for peace in Gaza, interviewed by journalist Amit Segal on Channel 12 of Israeli television, said: “No one is obliged to do anything, least of all Israel, before concrete and verifiable steps are taken on the ground (…). If it is verified that the weapons have been seized from the factions, stored away and rendered unusable, then Israel will withdraw from Gaza”. Last Sunday, at the opening of the Israeli government meeting, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had thundered: “Israel rejects the fifteen-point document and the IDF will not withdraw until Hamas has been disarmed of both heavy and light weapons”. No one had reacted to the statement, which seemed so forceful and at odds with the enthusiasm shown just a few days earlier by the US President, Donald Trump, when he said that the plan for Gaza was, in fact, ready to go ahead. And if no one reacted to Netanyahu’s words, it is because the Israeli Prime Minister was merely stating the obvious and saying what Mladenov went on to report on television to Amit Segal, who asked him repeatedly: “So there are no plans for an Israeli withdrawal before Hamas is disarmed?” “No,” repeated the envoy of Bulgarian origin. Nor were the Americans particularly fazed; some officials told the Axios website that Netanyahu’s statements had been viewed more in the context of the election campaign in Israel than as a reneging on commitments made regarding Gaza. Mladenov specified that the task of disarming Hamas would be a long one, that it would take ten years to clear all the tunnels, and that this would be carried out by construction firms authorised to operate within the Strip. The Peace Council envoy emphasised that at this stage of the plan, no withdrawal by the IDF is envisaged, but Israeli soldiers are required to remain within the Yellow Line – the boundary marked by yellow concrete blocks that separates the area controlled by Israel from that held by Hamas – and not to fire unless they identify clear threats of rearmament by terrorists. Since the start of the ceasefire, Israel has expanded its territory within the Yellow Line, and Mladenov’s request now is that it should not advance any further. The envoy specifies that the Peace Council’s plan is not intended to be based on trust; no one will take Hamas at their word, nor will they simply hope that the terrorists will do what is required of them and what they have agreed to do – surrendering light and heavy weapons, abandoning the tunnels from which the 7 October plot against Israel originated – but it will be based on verification: every claim made by Hamas will be scrutinised, and if that scrutiny fails, then “the process will come to a halt”. The conversation between the two is also interesting because Segal is a journalist with excellent sources within the government and the security services, whose views are often not far removed from those of Prime Minister Netanyahu. (Flammini continues in Supplement III)

In his conversation with Mladenov, Segal asks specific questions and it is clear that he is in favour of implementing the plan, despite the margin for error it entails and the possibility that it may still leave part of Hamas in place. The Bulgarian correspondent says that Gaza is ruled by Kalashnikovs; he is not speaking naively, but asserts that, so far, the plan is the best guarantee Israel has that 7 October will not be repeated.

The country is in the midst of an election campaign and, following the massacre carried out by Hamas in the kibbutzim in the south of the country, following the wars on multiple fronts, following the security failures, and following the slow return of the hostages with far too many deaths, everyone knows that these elections will be fierce. No candidate – neither Netanyahu nor his opponents – will utter a single word in favour of withdrawal from Gaza, even if in private they may agree with the Peace Council’s plan. Then, however, there is the reality on the ground and signs that Israel is honouring its commitments: talks are continuing and, in Rafah, within the Yellow Line, reconstruction work has been approved, to be carried out by a company from the United Arab Emirates.