Putin is reshuffling the army with the aim of bringing Donetsk under his control

 Vladimir Putin is seeking momentum and reshuffling the old guard; the names remain the same, whilst the new generation lags behind, perhaps well hidden or inconspicuous within the army’s ranks. With the Russian flag behind him, whilst seated alongside Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov and Defence Minister Andrei Belousov, Putin announced changes at the top of the military. No reprimands; it all took place for the cameras, in the cold, austere setting of the Kremlin’s communications centre. When Putin appears, he repeats that everything is fine, that “the special military operation is proceeding according to plan”, that his soldiers are excellent, and that Russia will win. 

He does not like change; military bloggers, the ‘voenkory’, criticise the slowness of the war; they are often on the front line alongside the soldiers, seeing what works, what does not, what is moving or standing still, and they see that the front line is virtually at a standstill – and has never been so stagnant as it has been this summer. Putin does not listen to the voenkory; he lends an ear only to the men he chooses and, above all, shows Russia that every decision he makes is the right one. That is why, in the televised address he gave on Wednesday evening, he praised his army and its commanders, but announced only a few reshuffles among the old guard – nothing new. The Kremlin leader announced the appointment of General Denis Lyamin as head of the Drone Division, recently established within the ranks of the Russian army, which is catching up in the field of unmanned aerial vehicle technology: it is now producing large quantities, adapting, innovating and passing on its innovations to its allies. The faces remain hidden, although Lyamin has served in many units of the Russian army and is following in his father’s footsteps: his father, Igor, only retired from the military in 2020. Lyamin has spent a long time in Ukraine, on various fronts and in various roles; he is a general from the old war – the all-out conflict of 2022 – and knows little about drones, but his name is more a reassurance than a sign of change.

When Putin makes changes, reshuffles his cabinet and stirs things up, his decisions tend to go largely unnoticed; yet when it is Ukraine that is undergoing change, it seems that every new appointment or dismissal must be seen as a sign of collapse for Kyiv or a democratic setback for Volodymyr Zelensky. Changes in Russia arouse less interest; they leave people indifferent, do not spark controversy, and are never interpreted as evidence of discontent or dissatisfaction on Vladimir Putin’s part. What happens within the Russian establishment is business as usual; within the corridors of Ukrainian power, however, it immediately becomes everyone’s business – not just Kyiv’s. Putin has not merely chosen to put a face to the Drone Division; he has reorganised the top echelons of the Armed Forces on the front line, with a particular focus on the eastern and southern fronts in Ukraine. General Andrei Ivanaev was born in Kazakhstan – whereas Lyamin was born in Belarus – is subject to sanctions by the European Union and the United States, and has taken charge of the force group known as ‘Tsentr’ (Centre). Meanwhile, Petr Bolgolgv is the new commander of the ‘Vostok’ (East) group. This is not a change, but a rotation, a reshuffling of roles. Ivanaev previously led the ‘Vostok’ group and, having now moved to ‘Tsentr’, has taken the place of Valeri Solodchuk, a general accused of involvement in the atrocities in Bucha, who is now head of logistics at the Ministry of Defence. These little-known names will remain so, but Putin’s reshuffles involve figures who have already failed, yet to whom he continues to entrust the same tasks. In announcing the new appointments, the Kremlin leader explained that the aim of the ‘Tsentr’ group will be to capture the entire eastern Donetsk region, where the Ukrainians continue to defend their strongholds – with difficulty, but nevertheless significantly slowing the pace of the Russian advance. Since Donald Trump’s return to the White House, Putin has tried to persuade him to hand over Donetsk, bypassing the American president and arguing that his troops would soon achieve what he wanted anyway, so it might as well be Ukraine that was forced to give in. Trump had been convinced; it took several visits from Zelensky, detailed maps of the front line, and discussions with military and diplomatic experts to make him realise that the capture of Donetsk was far from imminent and that it would therefore be unfair and dangerous for Ukraine’s future to hand over to Moscow territory that it is unable to take by force.

Yesterday, the Ukrainian president issued a number of evacuation orders for Kramatorsk, one of the fortified towns in the Donetsk region that Russia is seeking to capture. The news was quickly interpreted as a sign of surrender – precisely the surrender that Moscow craves – but no such surrender has taken place, nor is it part of Ukraine’s plans. A Ukrainian soldier operating in the Kramatorsk area explained to "Il Foglio" that the situation has become very dangerous for civilians, who, caught between drones and glide bombs, face risks similar to those in Kherson; however, there are no signs of either a mass evacuation or that the Ukrainians are about to lose control of the city.