In Michigan, the result is still too close to call

A night that could have been a triumph for the progressive movement has turned into a nail-biting contest. In the Democratic Senate primary in Michigan, the party’s left-wing candidate, Abdul El-Sayed, a former public health officer of Egyptian origin, is leading MP Haley Stevens by around two percentage points, but the race is far from over. It has been a tougher battle than expected, as James Gasber, El-Sayed’s campaign manager, also acknowledged, telling the New York Times that he had expected a wider margin. Instead, the contest has continued throughout the night and still has no clear winner: the candidate of Egyptian origin has dominated the counties home to the state’s universities, demonstrating his strength among educated young people, whilst Stevens has led in Wayne County, which has an African-American majority. In the city of Dearborn, home to the state’s largest Arab-American community, El-Sayed holds a lead of over 57 points. Stevens stated during the night that the winner must defeat the Republicans, who “sell us off to the highest bidder, ban abortion and cut healthcare”. This is an important signal to unite the party ahead of November. The winner will face the Republican Mike Rogers, who faced no opposition in his primary.

It was a tough, no-holds-barred contest. El-Sayed immediately secured the backing of leading figures on the party’s left, from Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders to MP Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. She campaigned on issues dear to the US progressive movement, such as free public healthcare for all, higher taxes for billionaires and the abolition of ICE, the anti-immigration agency which received increasing funding during Trump’s second term. In contrast, Stevens, backed by the entire party establishment, including the popular state governor Gretchen Whitmer, has positioned herself as the more pragmatic and centrist choice and has based her campaign on electability. She believes that in a swing state like Michigan, which has backed Trump twice in the last three elections, a candidate like El-Sayed risks costing the Democrats the seat, jeopardising the already tough battle to gain control of the Senate. The progressive candidate, however, stated in his speech last night that “Michigan is not a swing state, but a state that needs a movement so that people can afford their rent and basic necessities”. 

The central issue dividing opinion during the campaign was support for Israel. El-Sayed took a very hard line against the Jewish state during the campaign: as well as describing Israel’s actions in the Gaza Strip as genocide, she stated that the United States should no longer provide any form of aid to Tel Aviv. When pressed on the issue, she declared that she did not believe in ethno-states and did not want her country to be responsible for supporting one. Stevens, on the other hand, is pro-Israel and supports US aid to the Jewish state, although she has criticised the current Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, arguing that his actions have made American Jews less safe. Stevens is backed by the pro-Israel lobby AIPAC, which has spent as much as $30 million on advertising spots in her favour. In one of these adverts, Barack Obama is seen describing her as “an important member of my team”: the former president did not formally endorse her, but these advertising campaigns were nonetheless crucial in securing the support of the African-American electorate. El-Sayed openly criticises Stevens for accepting money from large corporations, which he claims has influenced her campaign. 

Furthermore, the progressive candidate was attacked throughout the campaign for his highly aggressive manner, which bordered on sexism. He described Stevens as ‘a suit with an AIPAC bank account, who can’t string two coherent sentences together’. But she wasn’t the only one: referring to the centrist Pennsylvania Senator John Fetterman, she claimed that “you have to put an ogre on a pike, and then everyone gets the message”. She also held two events with the left-wing streamer Hasan Piker, who has a large following among young progressives but who found himself at the centre of a storm for claiming that the United States deserved 9/11.

In another closely watched race, however, the party’s left wing secured an important victory: in the primary for Michigan’s 7th district, the progressive candidate William Lawrence defeated two moderate candidates, former Navy SEAL Matt Maasdam and former ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink. Lawrence faced criticism over a comment made in 2024 in which he had said that the older generation of African-American leadership “neutralises the white left”: he subsequently regretted making the remark and stated that, should he defeat the Republican Tom Barrett in November, he would support the current Minority Leader, Hakeem Jeffries, as Speaker. The main setback for the left, however, came from Missouri: former progressive MP Cori Bush failed to win re-election to the House of Representatives. MP Wesley Bell, who was also backed by AIPAC, secured 60 per cent of the vote.