Merz has ‘Merkel syndrome’. He knows everything but doesn’t know how to make himself liked

Berlin. The fallout from the Spahn affair continues to cause embarrassment for Friedrich Merz. The story of the powerful CDU parliamentary group leader, 46-year-old Jens Spahn, dates back to 18 July, when he resigned after his husband had publicly announced the birth of their child in the United States via surrogacy, a practice banned in Germany. The Chancellor had handled the situation with grace: offering his best wishes to the new parents on 17 July, but accepting Spahn’s resignation the following day – Spahn having been overwhelmed by the controversy – because “in politics, credibility is everything”. The Chancellor then took advantage of the resignation of the party’s second-most important leader to carry out a summer reshuffle: he replaced Spahn with his own chief of staff, Thorsten Frei; to fill Spahn’s post, he chose Health Minister Nina Warken, who was in turn replaced by the CDU’s secretary-general, Carsten Linnemann. A clean and painless manoeuvre, requiring no involvement of the Social Democratic coalition partners or the Bundestag (which was, moreover, closed for the summer recess): whilst in Italy the entire government must secure a vote of confidence from Parliament, in Germany this applies only to the Chancellor, who is, in theory, free to appoint and dismiss ministers.

But not to humiliate them, because even ministers, after all, present the bill. This is precisely what Transport Minister Patrick Schnieder did, after Merz had announced his sacking without even naming a successor. After three days of public grilling, Schnieder slammed the door with a resounding: ‘You know what? I’m leaving’, forcing Merz to offer a clumsy apology. After all, the Chancellor has a rare talent for infuriating everyone: in recent months, he has claimed that German cities have become ugly because of immigration; he has asserted that Iran humiliated Donald Trump; and he returned from a climate summit in Belém, Brazil, remarking: “But who would want to stay there?”. A string of gaffes that is exacerbating his popularity crisis. Even his farewell message to the German national football team, which was knocked out in disgrace in the World Cup round of 16, sparked controversy: “You have inspired our country. We are proud of you.” Yet Merz is doing his utmost: he is not opening the door to the extremists of the AfD, he is trying to keep Trump at bay, he supports Israel and Ukraine and, at the same time, is attempting to revive the German economy.

In this respect, the contrast with his nemesis, former Chancellor Angela Merkel, is striking. Whilst Merz plans, pushes through reforms and aims to make the Bundeswehr Europe’s leading army, Merkel knew how to seize opportunities, live in the moment and improvise. Is the Nord Stream pipeline working well? Let’s double its capacity and get closer to Putin. Is Germany protected by its allies? Let’s abolish compulsory military service. Are millions of refugees knocking at Europe’s doors? Let’s open the borders. Even in the twilight of her long reign, when in 2021 she was paying the price for that ‘Wir schaffen das’, that ‘We can do it’ (to welcome them all), uttered six years earlier, Merkel enjoyed the support of 72 per cent of Germans (Gallup). Today, 82 per cent (Ilium) believe that Merz is a poor leader. Of course, the two are very different. He is rich, she is not; she is a divorced Protestant, he is a married Catholic; she is from the East, he is from the West.

Ultimately, however, there are always personal differences between leaders. Setting aside judgements on individual actions, the success of political leadership depends heavily on the qualities of the person exercising it. And even in staid Germany, those who demonstrate a willingness to listen and show empathy are more successful than those who have a clear vision but talk too much and are often perceived as arrogant. The success of Angela Merkel, who became Chancellor in 2005, was foreshadowed in a photograph taken way back in 1990 when, having been thrust into the fray by Helmut Kohl for the first elections following reunification, she was pictured on the campaign trail with five fishermen in a hut amidst smelly fishing nets, lit cigarettes and beer bottles on the floor. Merz appears increasingly well-prepared, but she was the friend you could trust.