Trump says that Hamas has agreed to disarm and that Israel will withdraw from Gaza. But the parties are already backing away

Donald Trump announced the agreement on social media. The Board of Peace has reached a historic agreement on the complete disarmament of Hamas and all other armed groups in Gaza, the president writes on Truth. A step towards lasting peace and security, he adds. However, a caveat remains: Israeli forces will only withdraw once disarmament is complete, and it will be the International Stabilisation Force that works alongside a new Palestinian police force to ensure the enclave’s security. 

Confirmation has come from Gaza, albeit partial. Two Hamas officials told AFP that they had reached an agreement on the second phase of the truce, which includes the disarmament of the Islamist movement. Operational responsibility will pass to a local body: the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza will manage the inventory and storage of weapons according to an agreed timetable, and will remain the sole entity authorised to possess or control them. According to Al Jazeera, which has seen the text, the agreement stipulates that a detailed roadmap for disarmament is to be drawn up within fourteen days, with possible extensions subject to the approval of an international monitoring body and the consent of all parties.

On the ground, however, the gap between the positions remains wide. A Hamas official told Al Jazeera that the group has no intention of disarming until the Israeli occupation of the enclave has ended, whilst Israel is aiming for a phased rather than an immediate withdrawal. This is the very same sticking point that has stalled negotiations in recent weeks: in its response to the US plan, Hamas did not indicate any willingness to disarm and demilitarise Gaza, nor did it accept a phased Israeli withdrawal, demanding instead a total and immediate withdrawal of troops. 

The diplomatic situation is, however, evolving. A summit on the second phase of the ceasefire is expected to take place in Egypt, where Al Qahera News reports that a meeting of mediators – including the United States, Qatar and Turkey – will soon be held there. The Board of Peace, for its part, says it is focusing on implementation: the organisation has posted on social media that Hamas has agreed to a detailed roadmap for the next stages of the ceasefire. 

The most recent precedent remains that of last Friday, when Netanyahu ordered the army to prepare for the ‘immediate implementation’ of the first phase of the plan following Hamas’s response, without, however, Israel committing to a reduction in military activity in Gaza. For the time being, the script is the same as it was then. Complicating the picture is a further unknown factor, namely Tehran: according to Axios, which cites a senior US government official as its source, the Pasdaran have in fact been in frequent contact with the Islamic militia in recent times, pressuring them to reject any potential disarmament agreement.