If even Tokayev is telling Putin off, it means that something is changing

Last Saturday in the Russian city of Omsk, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev delivered a speech that few would have expected from a long-standing ally of Moscow. Meeting President Vladimir Putin at the Russia-Kazakhstan Interregional Cooperation Forum, Tokayev called for the conflict in Ukraine to be ‘frozen’ and for a return to the so-called Istanbul 2.0 formula, under the guarantee of the major powers, including Russia. He added that the very nature of the conflict remains unclear even to the Kazakhs, and that it is the young people of both nations – described as brothers due to their shared genetic heritage – who are dying: “All this must end,” he said, arguing that the continuation of the war benefits only the adversaries of Russia and Ukraine.

Little has been said about it, but for many observers it was a rare and significant intervention, because Tokayev’s words represent one of the few public appeals from the leader of one of Moscow’s closest regional partners urging Russia to return to the negotiating table and bring the conflict to an end. According to some, Tokayev’s statement was not merely a diplomatic decision by Astana, but the conveyance of a message from Beijing. The Kazakh president was in Shanghai just two weeks ago, where he met with President Xi Jinping, and may have acted as an intermediary, conveying a message from the Chinese leadership to Putin – a leadership that is likely weary of the climate of uncertainty surrounding Russia’s war against Ukraine but prefers to play a low-key role. In recent years, Tokayev has managed to balance and calibrate his relationship with both Moscow and Beijing; however, as a sinologist who speaks Mandarin, many believe he is far more influenced by China than by Russia. It is unclear what the Chinese leadership’s true position on Putin’s war actually is, but what is certain is that if even historical allies are beginning to urge the Kremlin leader to show restraint, something is changing.