Where is the split within PiS in Poland leading?

Jaroslaw Kaczynski has chosen an increasingly right-wing, increasingly extreme path for his party, the PiS, which governed Poland from 2015 to 2023 and has now embarked on a long and aggressive campaign to oust Prime Minister Donald Tusk from government in 2027. However, PiS has not always been an extremist party; indeed, there are those within it who have attempted to create an alternative faction, albeit under the umbrella and control of their leader, Kaczyński. It was former Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki who initiated this faction, Rozwoj plus (Development Plus), which began as a ‘Council of Experts’ within PiS. Morawiecki proposed coexistence, but Kaczyński instead decided that this amounted to treason and told his former prime minister and all members of Rozwoj plus: ‘It’s either me or the door.’ They did not choose him; they were shown the door, and the damage to PiS is substantial: its seats in Parliament are dwindling and, for the time being, the coalition to defeat Tusk is unravelling. The change within PiS is now embodied by President Karol Nawrocki, who bears no resemblance to the old party, not even in terms of its once-secure international standing. A split within the party had been anticipated for years by all those who claimed its origins, and also as a consequence of the failure of Viktor Orbán’s model in Hungary. Kaczyński, however, has continued to court Orbán, standing alone in a world that is distancing itself from him. In Poland, analysts are keeping their expectations low; there are doubts about the courage of Morawiecki and his followers. If change were to actually take place, it would be felt across Europe too: the PiS sits amongst the Conservatives and Reformists, where Morawiecki might not feel at home, but it would be difficult for him to join the European People’s Party, where Tusk sits. Everything is in flux: for some time now, the Polish Prime Minister has shown esteem and interest in the Italian Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni, who, however, is aligned with the PiS within the Conservatives. A major shake-up that could rewrite the alliances on the right or come to nothing.