How to Wake Up a Patriot

Mykolaïv, from our correspondent. Last week, before the political crisis in Ukraine absorbed all his attention, President Volodymyr Zelensky was in Paris with his allies – the ‘willing ones’ – who, during the meeting, genuinely demonstrated their willingness to show that the European arms industry cannot rely on the shortcomings of US production. We cannot wait; we cannot give Moscow’s missiles any time, especially now that Ukraine is facing increasing air-defence challenges and Moscow is unleashing its arsenal on cities. In Paris, Zelensky demonstrated that an air defence system alternative to the American Patriots is possible, and the ‘willing allies’ believed him, deciding to support the Freyja project by Fire Point, a company that leads the way in Ukraine in missile production and development. The message in Paris was clear: without the United States, we struggle to defend ourselves, but that does not mean we will stand idly by; we are thinking, innovating and will soon be manufacturing, together with the Europeans. In early July, Zelensky had met the US President, Donald Trump, in Ankara during the NATO summit. The meeting was full of smiles and pats on the back, a few compliments and, above all, it concluded with a promise to grant the Ukrainians a licence to produce Patriot batteries, which so far represent the only possible defence against Moscow’s missiles.

A taboo has been broken: for Western companies, manufacturing in Ukraine is both possible and advantageous. The announcement went down well in Russia; the Kremlin and its propagandists protested and commented with contempt, though they are well aware that it will take time before American weapons can be assembled in some secret factory in Ukraine. And whilst time passes, they can continue to bomb, especially in the coming months, when the missiles will be aided by the cold and frost. Moscow has calculated that even the Patriot systems already assembled by the United States will not arrive quickly, as the US is busy rebuilding its own arsenal after squandering interceptors on drones during the early stages of the war against the Islamic Republic of Iran. Last week in Paris, Zelenskyy demonstrated the Ukrainian alternative, and something has also happened in Washington.

Lockheed Martin, the world’s largest defence contractor, has announced that it is working on a new project: a new Patriot system that is cheaper and quicker to produce. It is a less advanced variant than the system everyone aspires to, but one that can reach the battlefield more quickly. The announcement, following the outbreak of war against Iran, represents a breakthrough that could relieve the United States and its allies of many concerns regarding their defensive missile stocks. The project is called the PAC-3 Adapted Capability Effector; whilst it does not replace the high-end Patriot systems, its speed and cost represent a major breakthrough.

Something else has happened too: Ukraine is set to begin exporting drones to the United States, where they will be tested and their ability to intercept other drones assessed. It is an outcome that, back in March – during the US’s ‘Epic Fury’ operation against Tehran, whilst the US military and its Gulf allies continued to squander Patriot missiles – seemed like a pipe dream: the US president had rejected any cooperation with Kyiv, even protesting against the Gulf states that had begun to strike deals with the Ukrainians without seeking Washington’s permission. Zelensky had undertaken lengthy trips to the Middle East, going everywhere except Israel, and kept repeating: “Drones are our oil.” Trump was unwilling to listen to him, and his military officials were contacting Kyiv behind the US president’s back, knowing that what was coming off the Ukrainian production lines now represented a turning point in the way war is waged. It was indispensable. The revolution that began in the factories of Kyiv has spread to defence industries across the globe; the United States could not afford to stand idly by, lest it risk seeing its Patriot systems rendered useless by a drone and even overtaken by the Freyja. The turning point began in Paris.