The Lebanese president is in the United States to speed up the disarmament of Hezbollah

It has not happened since 2009 that a Lebanese president has flown from Beirut to Washington to meet the US president at the White House. Today, Joseph Aoun will meet Donald Trump to demonstrate that Lebanon has a plan and every intention of disarming Hezbollah, the Party of God, which is heavily armed and has grown into an army in recent years, has attacked Israel and dragged all Lebanese people back into war. Within Lebanese territory, Israeli soldiers occupy the southern region; their withdrawal is conditional upon the disarmament of Hezbollah, and Aoun will have to provide evidence of the readiness of Beirut’s regular army, which is set to take Israel’s place following the withdrawal. Aoun, for his part, has his previous career to draw upon: he was once the head of the army and is well acquainted with the internal dynamics that have, in recent years, allowed Hezbollah to become a state within a state. 

Not that he has managed to prevent it, but today Aoun’s strategy will be to demonstrate that he understands the situation well and is genuinely committed to bringing about change. Following the war that began on 2 March, Beirut can no longer tolerate the Islamic Republic of Iran making decisions on behalf of the Lebanese people. The Lebanese army has repeatedly pledged, on paper, to disarm Hezbollah, but has never dared to clash with the group for fear of a civil war between the Shia and other communities. This time it is different: the Party of God has shown itself to be in the service of a foreign country, to obey and to acquiesce, and even within the Shia community, some cracks have begun to appear.

Aoun spoke first with Marco Rubio, and the US Secretary of State confirmed that the United States will establish two pilot zones in southern Lebanon from which the IDF will withdraw and hand over control to the Lebanese army. Hezbollah has never accepted the agreement signed by Israel and Lebanon at the end of June, accusing the Lebanese government of failing to protect the interests of the Lebanese people and of submitting to Israeli occupation. Aoun will have to be wary of these accusations, which are spreading rapidly, being amplified by Iran and ultimately fuelling discontent within the Shia community, who are being told that their president is allowing Israel to run rampant on their territory.

Whilst Aoun was already in the United States, he spoke on the phone with the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Saudi Arabia is increasingly involved in Beirut, keeping one eye on Iran whilst trying to ensure that Israel does not become the new dominant power in the country. During the phone call, Bin Salman told Aoun: “We support your decisions in the name of your country’s sovereignty.” The real battle is against Tehran, which refused to recall its ambassador after Beirut had expelled him, demonstrating that it can act freely in Lebanon without needing to heed the local authorities. Riyadh avoids mentioning Israel; it has increased its presence and trade with Beirut to act as a bulwark against the Jewish state as well, but it is Iran that it wishes to keep at bay above all.

Israel has agreed to withdraw from six villages situated north and south of the Leonte River; Lebanon hopes that the first tests will begin in about a week’s time, but the first withdrawal movements could take place as early as tomorrow, even though one detail is still missing: a third party must be appointed which, acting between the IDF and the Lebanese Armed Forces, will assume and maintain control of the territory and block Hezbollah’s attempts to derail the agreement.