It is war, but the Americans and Iranians still prefer not to utter the word that changes everything. The Middle East is once again under attack from missiles and drones – a different kind of barrage, more sporadic than the one that has swept across the United States’ allied countries in recent months, but just as unpredictable. The Americans have resumed striking Iran as before, whilst the Iranians are sending drones and a few missiles towards neighbouring countries and the centre of Tehran; in one of the posters through which the regime tells its story as it wishes it to be told, Donald Trump is depicted lying down against a black background: he is inside a coffin.
Israel is watching and waiting. It is not involved in the Strait of Hormuz and is keeping its distance from Tehran’s reactions. Neither the Iranians nor the Americans want the IDF to start moving again; with Israeli fighter jets in the air, it would be difficult to continue avoiding the word ‘war’. But Israel does not always bow to American wishes; if it decides not to take part in operations, it is because it is not interested, and its inaction is already a first reaction. When the United States chose to sign the memorandum of understanding with the Iranian regime, Israel feared it marked the beginning of an American capitulation to all of Tehran’s demands. Disagreements had begun between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the US administration; the Israelis claimed they could start a war against Iran at any moment. But now that an agreement seems a distant prospect, Israel has no need to take part in the attacks; it can stand still, motionless: its objective is not in question, and it does not need to fight to prevent Iran from being handed a favourable deal.
Netanyahu will travel to the United States at the weekend to attend the funeral of Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, who has never agreed with the memorandum championed and drafted by Vice-President J. D. Vance. The visit is also a way of drawing closer to Trump, meeting him, speaking to the American president and projecting an image of strength, friendship and alliance. No meetings are currently scheduled, but the American press has suggested next Monday as a possible date for a summit between the two. Trump does not want to be dragged into a long war; he knows it does not pay off electorally, but now he has had no choice. The memorandum’s failure was written into its text, in all the points concerning the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. All Israel had to do was wait, as it is doing now, whilst watching the attacks unfold.
