Progress and shortcomings between Israel and Lebanon following the meeting in Rome

Israel and Lebanon are taking this seriously; since signing a framework agreement on the future of their relations, they have chosen to continue their work, meet, talk and make plans. On Tuesday and Wednesday, delegations from the two countries met in Rome, at the US Embassy, to discuss an issue on which the future of the agreement hinges: the pilot zones from which the Israeli army is to withdraw and which are to come under the control of the Lebanese regular army. Progress is being made through trials and trials, including on a zone-by-zone basis, and there will be two such trials. 

We start with two areas, one below and the other above the Leonte River, where the IDF will have to hand over control to the Lebanese, to ensure that Hezbollah militants do not regain control of the territory. The fear is that the Lebanese forces will be unable to counter Hezbollah; they are too wary of a civil war to clash with the Shia group and do not yet have sufficient training to exercise their authority. The key issue is trust: Israel must trust the Beirut-based army to leave the territory in its hands; for this reason, discussions have taken place in Rome regarding a third force – which could be supported by the United States – tasked with ensuring that Hezbollah and its weapons are kept well at bay.

Israel and Lebanon have not finished their talks; the process for the withdrawal of the IDF will be a long one, but it will not take place unless the Israelis receive sufficient assurances that, this time, the Lebanese soldiers are ready, armed and determined to stand up to Hezbollah. For the authorities in Beirut, it is not easy to continue talks with Israel; President Joseph Aoun has taken many risks, and Shia politicians are opposing his decision to press ahead with the talks despite the fact that the IDF has not yet withdrawn from southern Lebanon. Jerusalem must learn to trust Beirut, and Beirut must learn to trust Jerusalem. It is not easy, but it is a necessary investment for future relations between the two countries and for the future of Lebanon, which is stifled by the overwhelming power of Hezbollah – a group that has learnt to control many aspects of life, not just for the Shia community, thereby imposing a ‘state within a state’. US President Donald Trump has told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the IDF must withdraw from Lebanon and also from Syria. He did not specify a timeframe, but he indicated this as a goal that Washington regards as non-negotiable. It is unlikely that Israel will withdraw now, without being certain of Hezbollah’s disarmament and with elections dictating the pace of politics. It has not been confirmed whether the next talks will take place in Rome, a venue chosen for its location in the Mediterranean and also for its relations with both Lebanon and Israel.