The Domain of War. An analysis by Nicolas Baverez

“The barbarisation of the 21st century is accelerating at a brutal pace, dashing all hopes of détente,” writes Nicolas Baverez in *Le Figaro*. “Not only has peace never been so elusive, but war continues to spread, starting with the two main armed conflicts involving the dominant powers of the international system: Iran and Ukraine. In the Middle East, the illusory truce brokered between the United States and Iran under the 17 June agreement lasted less than three weeks. Attacks on ships and bombings resumed as early as 8 July, causing a new blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. This was followed by attacks on the energy and port infrastructure of the Gulf states and on US bases, prompting the United States to announce a new round of sanctions to stifle the Iranian economy. The Islamic Republic responded through its Houthi allies, who advanced into southern Yemen to take control of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Iran has thus consolidated its control over a second strategic chokepoint for maritime traffic, in addition to the Strait of Hormuz. The United States therefore finds itself in a veritable strategic dead end, unable either to win the war or to make peace with the Islamic Republic. All this at a cost of $38 billion as at 1 August and a further $3 billion per month, of which $22 billion is spent on ammunition following the depletion of more than half of the Patriot missile stocks and a third of the Tomahawk missiles, which will take at least five years to replenish. And at the cost of a severe collapse in the morale of American troops, with 50,000 soldiers remaining on active duty, ready to fight, whilst awaiting a strategy that is nowhere to be found, whilst their command is being decimated by purges comparable to those that Xi Jinping is inflicting on the People’s Liberation Army.

Israel, for its part, has abandoned the Iranian front solely to focus on Gaza and Lebanon, which are the targets of daily attacks, with the support of the Trump Administration, which has just approved a $2.8 billion contract for the supply of 40,000 Mk84 and Blu-117 bombs weighing 900 kilos. Without managing to eradicate either Hamas or Hezbollah. But this is also taking its toll on the Israel Defence Forces (Tsahal), which are no longer able to replenish their ranks and must contend with growing protests over the exemption from military service enjoyed by Orthodox Jews, who now account for 13 per cent of the population.

In Ukraine, the front line is at a standstill. Russia is losing 1,000 men a day for minimal territorial gains. Moscow is compensating for its military failure with systematic attacks on infrastructure and the civilian population, as well as by intensifying the hybrid war it is waging against Europe, now Kyiv’s main supporter. Taking advantage of the shortage of interception systems caused by the war in Iran, Russia is prioritising attacks on Ukrainian cities, critical infrastructure in the energy and transport sectors, supermarkets and logistics chains, with the aim of making life unbearable for the population. At the same time, attacks and acts of intimidation against European countries are on the rise: from the attack at Leipzig Airport to the spate of fires at arms manufacturing sites, including drone incursions into Poland, Denmark and the Baltic states, targeted attacks on port and airport traffic, the surge in cyber-attacks, and the rise in disinformation campaigns and election interference. Vladimir Putin, who has exerted greater control than ever over the parliamentary elections by suppressing all forms of opposition, is trapping Russia in a suicidal spiral combining demographic collapse, the disintegration of an economy undermined by shortages and inflation, and subservience to China. Despite paying an enormous human and material price, Ukraine is not giving in; it is reinventing itself as a fully European nation and asserting itself as an increasingly autonomous actor in its own defence. At the same time, the aggression against Ukraine and the hybrid war have roused Europeans, who since 2022 have more than doubled their defence efforts, revitalised NATO and taken over from the United States in supporting Ukraine.

Although all parties involved in these two conflicts are losers, there is no scope either for seeking a negotiated solution or for a peace based on compromise. Each side believes it is in a position of strength and that time is on its side. All this leads to a logic of escalation and the expansion of the war. Military expansion through the militarisation of space, the seabed and the Arctic, cyberspace and artificial intelligence. Geographical extension, with the battlefield expanding to Europe, the Gulf States and Lebanon. Extension over time, with endless conflicts that transform war into a permanent state. Economic extension, with the shift towards stagflation and the risk of disruption to global trade and payments. Political extension, with the weakening of democracies and their corruption through violence.

The sole winner remains Xi Jinping’s China, which, for the time being, is continuing its quest for global hegemony without openly resorting to armed force. Beijing is methodically building an imperial sphere of influence in the Asia-Pacific, underpinned by a massive rearmament drive with a defence budget increased to 300 billion dollars. The annexation of Taiwan crystallises its ambitions as a major power, leading Beijing to step up military pressure on the island and to make intense efforts to justify the legitimacy and legality of the use of force against Taipei, whilst favouring economic blockade, internal destabilisation by the Kuomintang and Taiwan’s international isolation over outright invasion. The counterbalances to the dynamics of war remain limited, scattered and uncertain. China would have the means for decisive intervention in both Ukraine and Iran, but lacks the will to do so, prioritising the weakening of the United States and the division of the West. Popular uprisings are brutally suppressed in Iran and contained in Russia through propaganda, corruption and terror.

What remains is the awakening of global public opinion, which could push leaders to change course, just as protests and mass demonstrations are intensifying across every continent in the face of the energy crisis, the breakdown of trade and the resulting poverty amongst populations. Whilst we wait, it is up to democracies, particularly in Europe, to draw all the necessary conclusions from the escalation of international tensions and conflicts. War has not only returned to Ukraine and the Middle East, but is present at the very heart of our nations in its hybrid forms. To prevent and stem its momentum, Europe must not only rearm, but do so for its own sake and not for the United States, as Germany continues to do.”