Chivu, Amorim and a Milan derby fraught with unease

Looking solely at the cold, hard figures – Inter 25, Milan 18 – and the paltry two points dropped over nine matchdays (incidentally in a 2–2 comeback draw away to their most formidable Scudetto rivals) – one might be tempted to say that this Madonnina derby starts with the odds firmly in favour of the Italian champions. This perception is further magnified by what is, at least for the moment and pending any last-minute rescheduled fixtures, the endless list of unavailable players among Milan’s first-team regulars. Yet, to quote Toni Servillo/Giulio Andreotti in Paolo Sorrentino’s Il Divo, in the scene where he speaks with Eugenio Scalfari, the situation is a little more complex.

Amidst the statistics and predictions, however, comes a closer look at reality. And reality tells us that Inter are constantly playing with fire, having lost the man who knows how to both stoke and tame that fire as circumstances demand: captain Lautaro Martínez, a leader who is no longer merely the technical head of a team designed to dominate the league – a team within which certain questions are now beginning to arise. The first and most pressing: what is happening with Federico Dimarco? In a fully-strength Inter side, he would probably be on the bench for a few matches; but Cristian Chivu is grappling with the fitness issues of his centre-backs (Pavard and Stones), and so Carlos Augusto – alongside Thuram, by far the fittest player in this phase of the season, which can unquestionably be described as a tour de force – is finding his place as the left-back. But Dimarco’s problems remain: he is coming off the back of a season in which he was the league’s MVP, racking up a flurry of assists and providing a disruptive attacking presence capable of masking even a few defensive shortcomings. Now that his leg doesn’t seem to be holding up properly and his attacking output is dropping dramatically, Dimarco is trying to make the most of his matches as best he can, and so far it hasn’t been enough.

The second concerns the Nerazzurri’s tendency to suddenly spring into life only as the clock approaches the 90th minute: is this the calculation of a side that knows it can find the back of the net at will and deliberately chooses to take risks by saving the best for last, or the complacency – perhaps even arrogance – of a side that feels superior to its opponent and takes to the pitch with its mind elsewhere? A string of comebacks has been the defining feature of these two and a half months of the season: accidental in some cases – against Fiorentina, the deficit had seemed undeserved to say the least – and fiercely fought in others, such as at the Olimpico against Roma. What is certain is that for Chivu, following a midweek fixture in which millimetres (those of the double offside that nullified Venezia’s two potential 1–0 leads) made all the difference, a week begins that could shape the season, because after the clash with Milan comes the one against Feyenoord, and Inter’s Champions League campaign has been a shambles so far, whilst on Sunday 8 November it will be Como’s turn at San Siro.

On the other hand, until Samuel Mbangula’s performance, Milan had been basking in their unbeaten run in the league. On Wednesday evening, somewhat unexpectedly, that record too came to an end. A deserved defeat – though perhaps not by such a margin – which confirmed a view already held at the close of the transfer window: the gap between the top 15–16 players in the squad and those who are supposed to provide them with relief is like a chasm. This time round, far too many were missing from the line-up: Gila, Gabbia, Saelemaekers, Moreira, Rabiot and Chukwueze, to name just the first-team regulars or key substitutes. Amorim is fine-tuning his tactical plan as he goes along; he has tweaked the system by switching from a back three to a back four. He had welcomed Tomori back but lost him on the night at San Siro after an encouraging first half, but if these absences are confirmed, there will simply be too many for Milan to live up to their initial ambitions.

It must be said, however, that Bologna certainly did not turn up in Milan at their best, missing star player Orsolini, centre-forward Piccoli and a defensive trio that is still trying to adapt to the revolution imposed by one of Italian football’s most underrated figures, Raffaele Palladino, who, incidentally, found himself having to change all three centre-backs during the match. For the Rossoneri, the main question concerns their most expensive signing of the transfer window, because the statistics – once again – show that Gonçalo Ramos has scored two league goals, fewer than Moreira, Cisse and Rabiot when comparing him with his own team-mates. The Portuguese player has contributed so much more in his matches: a huge amount of work in building up play and pressing, but against Bologna he looked exhausted.

He has no alternative worthy of the name, because even with all the patience in the world for young players, Camarda’s standard is not yet that of a credible replacement for a centre-forward who cost over 70 million, and the constant demands of Sunday-Thursday-Sunday fixtures are wearing him down: He has already clocked up over 900 minutes this season, having failed to reach a total of 1,800 in his final season in Paris. The journey from super-sub to undisputed first-team regular is clouding his judgement, although the derby could be the perfect opportunity to win over the fans.

Then there is one fact that has little to do with statistics or on-pitch performance: Inter have not won a derby since April 2024, and seven have been played in the meantime. Chivu lost last year’s two derbies in almost identical fashion, failing to find a response to the Rossoneri’s narrow lead. Amorim (“he’s my top gun”, said Cardinale, confirming his faith in the Portuguese manager) is no Allegri, and it is likely that the Rossoneri will give the Nerazzurri more space to run riot, but the nagging doubt may still linger in the minds of the Italian champions. All this comes just a few hours before the unveiling at Castello Sforzesco of San Siro’s designated successor, the “Generali Stadium”: 71,500 seats set to replace the Meazza from 2032, with steep terraces and stands close to the pitch, in an attempt to recreate the magical atmosphere that has always characterised one of the world’s footballing temples.