After Madrid, it will be difficult to take the World Cup away from Antonelli

Kimi Antonelli could go on holiday for three Grand Prix races in a row and would be (almost) certain to return still leading the World Championship. The ‘almost’ depends on the fact that George Russell, who trails him by a considerable margin with 81 points fewer, would have to win all three of these races and take 75 points from him (to which the 8 points for the Singapore sprint race would then be added, giving him a potential total of 83 points). Given how the Briton has been performing this season, this does not seem to be a likely scenario in a normal world. The Bolognese driver has won his eighth race of the season. Russell – him again – has won seven in his entire career. Leclerc has won nine in his career to date.

Can we still say the World Championship is up for grabs? Honestly, no. Sport, of course, teaches us not to pass judgement until the maths confirms it. This means a couple of things. The first is that the young man from Emilia can only give away the Drivers’ Championship title. A whole host of negative events would have to occur – so many, in fact, that it would be nothing short of exceptional. The second depends on his rivals. If, in a season that has not exactly been positive for him, George Russell still manages to be his closest rival, it means all the more that Kimi has truly left the field in his wake. Russell has not won a race since the Austrian Grand Prix. That was on 28 June. Since then, he has had nothing but setbacks to swallow. In the six races since, Kimi Antonelli has opened up a massive gap. The young man has also been lucky.

The moral winner in Madrid was undoubtedly Lando Norris. The World Champion’s race – though he still narrowly missed out on the title – was ruined on lap 14 by the Virtual Safety Car triggered by Stroll. At that point, the other drivers, apart from Leclerc, changed their tyres, whilst he was unable to do so because he had already passed the pit lane. The problem is that when Lando pitted on the following lap, the Virtual Safety Car was withdrawn, and with it went the chance to minimise the time lost during the pit stop. A real ‘dirty trick’ on the part of race control. Last week at Monza, in a similar situation—and again with Stroll stationary (one might well ask a few questions about that)—the Virtual Safety Car was deployed and then lifted in such a way as to allow the leading drivers to choose whether or not to make a pit stop. In that instance, Mercedes decided to keep Russell out (we would later discover that this decision did not work out well for him. And this time too, in Madrid, it was the Briton who lost out as he had to make an extra pit stop). This time the approach was different, and if Norris were in the title fight, there would be plenty to discuss. Everything is going Antonelli’s way, including the fact that it is unlikely there will be nine more races to go. The two Grands Prix in Qatar and Abu Dhabi are still ‘pending’, and, if necessary, it will only be possible to replace one of them (with Imola, but it is almost impossible that that race could prove decisive).

Although no mention of Ferrari has appeared so far, the Scuderia had long been in the lead with Leclerc. Good news? Not quite. The Monegasque driver set excellent lap times on the white tyres, but unfortunately for him the requirement to make at least one tyre change had not been waived. Consequently, Leclerc was in the lead, hoping for an accident or a crash that would bring out the safety car. It was unfortunate for Ferrari that the ‘Stroll bonus’ had already been used up. And so, after losing Hamilton (his first ‘zero’ of the season), the Scuderia, having exhausted all their prayers, had to resign themselves to the pit stop and, with it, losing three places and finishing, once again, off the podium.

The layout of the Madrid circuit deserves – or rather, does not deserve – a final mention. Beautiful, absolutely stunning in qualifying. But dreadful for the race. Which is what should matter. The only question that prevented complete disengagement during the race was this: given that this circuit is completely new, should it not have been designed to allow drivers to attempt overtaking, rather than forcing strategists to rack their brains or wait for incidents to trigger Safety Car or Virtual Safety Car periods (which occurred far less often than expected)? Was there a need for an Iberian version of Monte Carlo? My answer is very clear: there was no need for it. So much so that a great many drivers, including Antonelli and Verstappen, have already called for changes for the coming years, to avoid those soporific train-like formations.

We will be back on track on 26 September; it will be a Saturday because the following day, Azerbaijan observes a Day of Remembrance dedicated to those who fell in the Nagorno-Karabakh wars.