Catholics are turning their backs on Trump

Rome. In the last presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump managed to win over the Catholic vote, which rewarded him with 55 per cent of the vote compared to the modest 43 per cent that went to his rival Kamala Harris. Two years later, the president’s approval rating amongst Catholics stands at 30 per cent. That is 25 percentage points lower than on the day of his victory and 17 percentage points lower than at the start of his term. These catastrophic figures were published by the Pew Research Centre, the authoritative American think tank. The worst news for Trump is that his approval rating has plummeted even among Hispanic Catholics, falling from 31 per cent to 18 per cent, and among ‘white’ Catholics from 59 per cent to 39 per cent. Things are no better among evangelicals, a major ‘Make America Great Again’ (MAGA) voter base: Trump’s approval rating has plummeted in two years, from 78 per cent on the night his return to Pennsylvania Avenue was confirmed to 58 per cent today. 

Despite this, “white evangelicals are the only religious group in which a majority hold a favourable view of Trump”, reports the Pew Research Centre. The figure for the Catholic vote is nonetheless significant: two years ago, for the first time in decades, a Republican candidate managed to win over even this section of the population, which has traditionally leaned towards the Democrats.

Today, 59 per cent of Hispanics say they are prepared to withhold their vote from the Grand Old Party, whilst only 19 per cent confirm their preference for a Republican. Ongoing tensions between the Administration and the Catholic Church have certainly not helped. From cuts to funding for immigrants (with Vice-President J. D. Vance – who is himself reportedly Catholic – making strongly hostile remarks against the episcopate) to the attacks levelled at the Pope last spring, with Trump accusing Leo XIV of being pro-Iranian and of wanting to increase crime. This culminated in the Episcopal Conference’s extremely strong stance against Pentagon Secretary Pete Hegseth’s proposal to carry out the executions of those sentenced to death live on television, starting with that of Nidal Malik Hasan this coming December. Before Trump’s U-turn, the US military ordinary and former head of the episcopate, Bishop Timothy Broglio, had issued a statement in an unusually stern and far from conciliatory tone: “Do we really want to imitate the terrorists of this world and turn the barbaric killing of our adversaries into a public spectacle? The crime committed by Nidal Malik Hasan was atrocious, but what purpose is served by exposing the public to his execution?”, wrote Bishop Broglio. “Has consideration been given to the potential psychological harm that members of the firing squad might suffer? Will it be possible to repair the damage caused by the live broadcast, during the 250th anniversary of our independence, to young people and those most easily influenced? The US Armed Forces generally enjoy a good reputation around the world. Is there really any benefit in placing them on the same level as terrorists, by broadcasting images of a man in a wheelchair being executed to the whole world? Does this decision reflect the dignity of the human person?’ The bishop, who is anything but a dangerous progressive, concluded with a peremptory order: ‘As I would do in the case of an induced abortion, I instruct all Catholics assigned to the firing squad to request to be exempted from this action, which is contrary to the teaching of the Church.’

It certainly did nothing to help Trump’s image amongst Catholics, moreover, that the US government was the last to wish the Pope, who was in hospital, a speedy recovery. Whilst King Charles of England sent Leo a private message, and whilst leaders from across the globe expressed their support and offered prayers, there was silence from the White House for days. It was only at the request of a few journalists travelling with the presidential entourage that Trump responded, expressing the hope that the Pontiff might get better. Moreover, the President has repeatedly made it known publicly that he prefers his older brother, Louis Prevost, “who is a MAGA supporter”. It remains unclear whether his judgment was influenced by his old friend Steve Bannon, who claims that the current Pope is the worst thing that could have happened to American MAGA supporters. He said this just a few minutes after learning of the Pope’s election last year. Vice-President Vance waited three days before announcing that he and his family “continue to pray for the good health and full recovery of Pope Leo XIV”. All that remains is to wait a few weeks to see how all these tensions will play out at the ballot box in the mid-term elections on 3 November.