Meloni-Messina clarification. The ‘difficulty’ with Salvini. The Spalmabonus is scrapped. The PD dreams of the Intesa

The left now believes it has a banker on its side, whilst the Meloni government believes it has a new enemy. A government crisis unfolds overnight across three different cities: Milan, Dublin and Rome. The banker who holds Italy’s debt in his pocket, Carlo Messina, CEO of Intesa Sanpaolo, describes the ‘superbonus’ spread provision in the Budget Bill as a ‘South American measure’. The news agencies pick up the quote; Meloni reads it and is stunned. She reacts: “South American? I consider it a matter of social justice.” She tells her aides: “I cannot be blackmailed, by anyone. That was true in the past and remains true now.” Messina’s words are described as “ill-chosen” and “unfair”. They speak on the phone. Messina, who has a sincere and frank relationship with Meloni, explains that he was referring to the provision on the Superbonus and not to the budget itself, and that the semantic error lay with the Minister for the Economy, Giancarlo Giorgetti – ‘the Habsburg’ Giorgetti. Meloni replies that those words risk inflaming Salvini: ‘You’re putting me in a difficult position.’ The provision on the Superbonus phasing-in is set to be scrapped, just as the update to the school staffing plan – which was being called a ‘cut’ – is being scrapped, though Meloni insists it is not a cut (as she states in a video).

The crisis, the upheaval, begins on Thursday afternoon. At the very same time, in Rome, just a few metres away, Messina is being questioned by the Banking Committee and Giorgetti by the joint committees of the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate. It is a scheduling error. That is how FdI views it. On the very day that Giorgetti is outlining a complex budgetary manoeuvre – the last of this parliamentary term – Messina is summoned by Forza Italia’s Pierantonio Zanettin to have his say. For the newspapers, it is a Messina-Giorgetti clash, even if only in terms of image. No one could have foreseen such an attack from Messina. No one. Four years in opposition had never done as much damage as these words: ‘South American-style regulations’. In Milan, Giuseppe Castagna, CEO of Banco BPM – the bank considered close to the Lega, which could soon merge with Crédit Agricole – is stunned. He is heard to say: “Messina has gone too far.” Another call goes out from Messina to Giorgetti. Meloni’s statement from Dublin clarifies that her immediate response had stemmed from a misunderstanding. On the phone, Messina acknowledges to Meloni that she has “restored the country’s reputation”, but also tells her that it would be a shame to lose it. 

The fallout from a misguided decision – the Superbonus, a measure that no government prior to Meloni’s had the courage to halt – has led to the most serious incident of this parliamentary term: a dispute between the Prime Minister and Italy’s most prominent banker. To reduce the debt, Giorgetti is spreading the Superbonus liabilities over ten years. This is hitting the banks – institutions that have already faced a tax increase, justified by the exceptional profits of recent years, a period of governmental stability. It is a rule that is now being removed, merely ‘a temporary measure’, as Giorgetti would put it. Messina’s target is Giorgetti, his party (to what extent is unclear), and the Lega. The Italian Banking Association (ABI) and the CEOs of the credit institutions that look to Messina for guidance speak of ‘aggressiveness’ on the part of the Lega – behaviour that, for Messina, is typical of ‘bullies’. It is this unease that prompts Messina to intervene. Paradoxically, the opportunity is provided by the government itself: the Banking Commission. The misguided phrase that irritates Messina, they say, is ‘debt consolidation’, a phrase used by the Minister for the Economy. For the banks, it smacks of Argentina and is causing anxiety on the international markets. For Meloni’s party, however, Messina’s response comes across as ungrateful. Marco Osnato, the chairman of the Finance Committee from FdI, says that ‘the tone used is surprising. We would have preferred to agree with the banks as much as possible, but we are certain that, in the end, the sacrifices made by the banks will have repercussions on their customers’ interests. As for the accusation of being ‘South American’, I don’t know whether Messina was referring to Lula or Milei.” The speculation is so sinister that some in the majority are venturing the idea that Corriere della Sera is shifting to the left, the start of an attack: banks and newspapers. There is a sense of extremely powerful hostile forces in the air, and there are even those who are smiling. They say that when Salvini heard Messina speak, he remarked: “Here’s a victory for the League – see, we were right, weren’t we?”

Anyone phoning Messina to gauge the atmosphere within the government is told that relations with Meloni are excellent, though less so with the others in the government. The name ‘Giancarlo’ – Giorgetti – comes up again. Messina speaks to him very late in the evening, after speaking to Meloni. They are both extremely shrewd players and both claim it was merely hyperbole on the part of the newspapers. They are playing it down. Messina points out that the debt is nothing more than the placement of government bonds and that if certainty is lost, the spreads will go haywire. A bewildered Tajani tries to intervene, to step in, because ‘sacrifices are never pleasant, but there was no other way’. Forza Italia tries to take credit for the amendment to the bonus spread. The entire Budget Bill is on the table. Trade unions are summoned to Palazzo Chigi. The leader of the UIL, Bombardieri, emerges and announces that ‘the cuts’ to education and healthcare have been scrapped. Meloni is forced to explain in a video that it was not a cut. Even basic courtesy goes out the window. Ignazio La Russa also speaks out against Messina, ‘because describing a budget as “South American” is offensive. To South America’. There is another shocking remark from Messina that opens up new possibilities: his call for the government not to view the banks as an ‘ATM’. He suggests looking elsewhere: “It’s not just the banks that have made profits. There are many sectors, not just the energy sector.” This comes across as a call to tax state-owned companies – Enel, Eni – managed by Claudio Descalzi and Flavio Cattaneo. It is the extremely dangerous scenario of everyone against everyone, and a new player is emerging: the PD, the left. The likely next Minister for the Economy, Francesco Boccia, has indicated that amendments will be tabled to “adjust the bonus spread” and that these will be cross-party amendments, whilst adding that Messina’s words “are correct”. If a single remark by Messina has caused a “shockwave”, what does his overture to the left amount to, just a few months before the elections? Claudio Durigon, the League’s strongman, says that “the right has agreed to and asked the banks to make a sacrifice, but the left, I would remind you, is in favour of a wealth tax”. Which left? Claudio Mancini, a PD MP who was almost a de facto Minister for the Economy during the Conte II government, with Gualtieri at the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF), sides with Messina: “Messina is right; he’s right about everything. The ‘bonus-spreading’ rule is an absurd piece of legislation. It’s Giorgetti’s headbutt, a bit like Zidane’s. Giorgetti lost 4–0 on the Intesa-Unipol-MPS-BPM issue and committed a foul in retaliation. The minister must explain why he prevented Unicredit from taking over BPM; he must explain his close relationship with Lovaglio. I also recall that there is an investigation by the Milan Public Prosecutor’s Office. The Banking Committee will remain in place and, over the coming years, will serve to shed light on Giorgetti’s actions”. New in-house tribunals are being prepared for a new era. The PD has found ‘comrade’ Messina, and Messina already has a party ready to amend the rules in his favour. Mancini adds: “We can win the elections. And the problem is starting to get serious.”