Surprise: for the PD, the real problem with the primaries isn’t winning them. It’s not winning them by a landslide.

The chatter and the figures. Is Giuseppe Conte a strong candidate for the progressive camp? Absolutely. Does he have the media clout and communication skills – with a daily newspaper at his disposal (or is it the other way round?) and plenty of friends in television – to go on the offensive in the leadership race? Undoubtedly. Can he win the primaries against Elly Schlein? No, not a chance, zero chance. In fact, it will be necessary to avoid letting him secure a humiliating share of the vote and to prevent a defeat that is too crushing. The usual argument that the coalition must be saved, that defeating the right is the top priority, and that to be united and successful every vote is needed—starting with those from the Five Star Movement—must always be borne in mind. So competition, yes, but without crushing anyone.

There is genuine alarm in Largo del Nazareno, not about the secretary’s position but about the balance of the contest. And this is no bluster. No one doubts that the polls on leaders’ popularity are reliable and that Conte is ahead of Schlein; no one thinks that the Movement’s leader is the type to give in, or that he lacks allies even outside his own party. The point is another: the method. In Italy, the PD invented the primaries and has always organised them: whether genuine, rigged, a foregone conclusion, well-attended or not, at national and local level. The advantage that the Democrats and their candidate gain from their familiarity with this practice – copied from the US – is, let’s say, worth tens of points, and even more so against the Five Star Movement. “The Five Star Movement hailed the 17,000 participants in the local meetings for ‘Nova’ – the initiative to draw up their programme – as a triumph. These are minuscule figures compared to the primaries, where over a million people could vote,” says a PD leader.

The mathematics leaves Conte with no way out and reassures Schlein. For this reason, the latter has his behind-the-scenes operatives claim that the primaries are nasty and diabolical, whilst attempting to win back some support from the Democrats by attacking Renzi. The PD secretary, on the other hand, is simply waiting to set the date (mid-February). Meanwhile, her team are working out how not to overplay the home advantage (i.e. their know-how regarding the primaries).

A more moderate outcome would have been easier to achieve with a ‘combined’ contest modelled on the first experiment: 2005. A mass rally, 4 million people at the polling stations, Prodi’s coronation. Everyone had their say: Bertinotti, Mastella, Pecoraro, Scalfarotto. With a genuine head-to-head contest, there is a risk.

The PD are mulling over this scenario. Turnout: 1.2 million people. Conte starts with 200,000 votes, and picks up another 100,000 from Democratic Party voters (“there’ll be 100,000 Bettinis amongst us, won’t there?”, they joke at the Nazareno). This means that Schlein, whether in a single round or a run-off, will come close to or reach one million votes. In other words: 75 per cent against 25 per cent. This is not good at all. Too great an imbalance. Prodi secured 74 per cent in 2005, but against six opponents. And he won the 2006 election, only to last just one year, in fact.

A ‘people’s festival’ is in reality a complex mechanism and a labour-intensive undertaking that the traditional centre-left has come to terms with, whilst the Five Star Movement has scarcely ever experienced it. The two euros to vote, registration at polling stations, the SPID for online voting. In 2012 (the Bersani–Renzi contest), there were 18,000 polling stations. There may be fewer this time round, but let us use the old figure. It takes around six people per polling station for set-up and supervision: 100,000 volunteers. The Movement would need two per polling station, meaning it would have to recruit 36,000 activists. That’s double the number who turned up at the Nova information stands. Online voting helps the Contiani, but it doesn’t displace the PD, which used virtual voting in Sicily where the Democrat Chinnici defeated the M5S’s Floridia.

It really is just a matter of numbers and knowledge, say the Democratic Party experts. Not electoral fraud, of course. The underdogs have also won, indeed making the primaries a success because they have demonstrated that the leadership is open to challenge and that the process is credible. Vendola’s extraordinary victory over Boccia in Puglia; Ignazio Marino securing victory in Rome against two frontrunners, David Sassoli and Paolo Gentiloni; Pisapia beating star architect Boeri in Milan; Marco Doria (SEL) defeating two Democratic Party candidates in Genoa, Vincenzi and Pinotti; and Renzi beginning his rise by ousting the official candidate for Palazzo Vecchio, Pistelli. But the national picture discourages betting on the underdogs.

So two questions are hanging in the air at the Nazareno. How can a result be achieved that leaves no toxic fallout for the election that really matters – the 2027 general election? And the second question, which is perhaps too late to ask: given the circumstances, is there still scope for an agreement that would allow the primaries to be bypassed (to the secretary’s advantage, of course)?