“Schlein is enthusiastic following Orbán, Bolsonaro and Trump. But she mustn’t rest on other people’s laurels”. Lazar’s lesson

Donald Trump’s defeat in the mid-term elections is a problem for Europe’s sovereigntist right, but it is not the solution for the left. This is the view of Marc Lazar, historian and political scientist, professor emeritus at Sciences Po and lecturer at Luiss, in an interview with the HuffPost. The main recipient of his call for caution is Elly Schlein: Lazar says he has witnessed the enthusiasm of the PD secretary, who is convinced that, following the defeats of Orbán, Bolsonaro and Trump, a new phase is dawning. But in his view, it would be a serious mistake to think that the success of the American Democrats alone can resolve the crisis facing the European left, because every country has its own problems and dynamics. His advice, in a nutshell: “Don’t rest on other people’s laurels.”

The same reasoning, Lazar explains, applies to the right. There is no ‘made in the USA’ political model that can be automatically replicated in Italy or France, but such a heavy defeat nevertheless poses a dilemma for those who have been close to Trump: Germany’s AfD, Éric Zemmour, Orbán – who was himself defeated in Hungary – and Giorgia Meloni, who has gradually distanced herself from Trump, particularly following the attacks on the Pope. The affinities remain deep: nationalism, the idea that the nation must prioritise its ‘authentic’ members, hostility towards immigration, and the battle against so-called ‘wokeness’.

The sovereigntist camp, however, is less united than it appears. Lazar draws a distinction between Fratelli d’Italia and the Rassemblement National – which pursue a seemingly moderate line, albeit one that is extremely hard-line in substance – and the aggressiveness of Trump and the AfD. The comments by Jordan Bardella, who attributed Trump’s defeat to the economic consequences of the war in Iran, do not represent a sudden reversal. Following the overtures of 2016, when Marine Le Pen visited Trump Tower without managing to meet him, the Rassemblement National distanced itself during his second term: first the tariffs, then the ambitions regarding Greenland, and finally Iran. As early as February 2025, Bardella had declined to speak at the CPAC, following Steve Bannon’s gesture from the stage which many had interpreted as a Nazi salute.

Lazar is convinced that Meloni has chosen to tone down her rhetoric on Trump and to speak about him as little as possible, and that the Prime Minister is now attempting to become the leading figure of the European right. She has the stability of her government and a higher level of public support than other leaders on her side. There is no shortage of uncertainties, starting with the lost referendum and a re-election that is far from a foregone conclusion, but when compared with Macron, Merz and Sánchez, according to Lazar, she is the one in the strongest position. And she will seek to maintain her role as a liaison with Washington, because Italy’s ties with the United States go beyond whoever occupies the White House.

As for Europe, Trump’s defeat will not be enough to rebuild a close relationship with Washington, and the US president has no reason to change his unpredictable approach to politics. The real question, for Lazar, is what sort of Europe we want to build: one that is more autonomous, starting with a common defence policy, even if a Democrat were to take office in the White House in two years’ time. The most sensitive issue remains Ukraine. Trump might sacrifice it for a deal with Putin, and a victory for Le Pen in the French presidential election in April 2027 would complicate matters further, given that she has said she would immediately suspend aid to Kyiv. If the election were held on Sunday, says Lazar, Le Pen would have an excellent chance of winning. But between now and April, he warns, the balance of power could shift dramatically.