The porcupine’s strategy. Why defence is a prerequisite for our freedom

Now that war has returned to the heart of Europe, many certainties we took for granted have revealed just how fragile they really are. For years, we believed that security was a given and that defence should gradually be limited to stabilisation missions. This belief has led to a gradual reduction in investment, a decline in industrial capacity and an underestimation of the strategic value of security.

The war in Ukraine has reminded us of a fundamental truth: defence is not an incidental aspect of the state, but a prerequisite for freedom. When a nation loses its ability to defend itself, it gradually loses everything else: the safety of families, the functioning of schools, hospitals, energy infrastructure and the economy. Without security, there can be no lasting freedoms. And without a credible deterrent capability, peace risks becoming nothing more than an illusion.

This shift in perspective has also had a profound impact on the Italian and European defence industry. Over the last three years, we have witnessed a transformation that would normally have taken at least a decade. An industrial system accustomed to long lead times has found itself immersed in a scenario characterised by urgency and increasing competition. It has become clear that national security depends not only on the availability of personnel and equipment, but on the ability to produce and update complex technologies rapidly. Our sector now represents a strategic asset comprising research, skilled employment and advanced expertise – an ecosystem involving large corporations, SMEs and universities. And this book makes an important contribution to understanding these transformations.

Defence is increasingly driven by technology. Artificial intelligence, space, cyber, quantum computing and autonomous systems are now key determinants of the geopolitical balance. In this context, technological dependence equates to strategic vulnerability. It is therefore essential to build an autonomous European industrial capacity by developing digital infrastructure, semiconductors, secure cloud services and access to critical materials, whilst cooperating from a position of strength.

Because peace is never permanent. Freedom cannot be taken for granted. And democracies must have the strength to defend themselves. I often refer to the porcupine’s strategy: a small, seemingly vulnerable animal, yet capable of deterring anyone who wishes to attack it thanks to its ability to defend itself. Deterrence works like this: not through aggression, but through credibility. Peace is preserved when those who wish to threaten it realise that the cost of aggression would be too high. Defence is not about seeking war; it is about preventing anyone from imposing it on others. It is on this realisation that we must build the future of our security, our strategic industry and our freedom.