Meloni’s weapons. She wants to approve the aid package for Kyiv to win over Calenda. Crosetto’s pressure

She could not avoid answering a specific question. Giorgia Meloni was asked whether Matteo Salvini’s stance – having been re-elected as secretary of the Lega and having stated that he would no longer vote for further military aid to Ukraine – might alter the level of support for Kyiv. In response, the Prime Minister did say that she respected “the sensitivities of an important ally such as the Lega”. But she also added that “that sensitivity has been expressed in the past too, and we have found a compromise. I do not foresee that compromise changing”. Although in reality that clarity – that unwavering support for Kyiv – has, at least when it comes to approving new military aid, become somewhat strained over time. No new aid packages have been approved since last November – an unprecedented situation compared with the previous twelve occasions. Meloni, however, knows that this decision cannot be postponed indefinitely. Even in the decision to entrust the matter to Defence Minister Guido Crosetto, there is an awareness that things will need to be speeded up. Indeed, yesterday Crosetto himself said that the package would arrive “by the end of the year”. Not least because in Ukraine “we are talking about an extremely difficult winter”, the minister added. The reasoning currently being put forward at Palazzo Chigi is that a new package in the coming weeks – between mid- and late November – would allow sufficient time before the election campaign gets into full swing. The hope is that this will not become a focal point, alongside Vannacci’s outbursts (of whom Meloni says “his aim is to make us lose”) and Salvini’s shift to the right. As the saying goes: better now than just before the polls.

This is another reason why, despite Meloni having repeatedly stated that she has “respect for the internal debate within the League”, she has long since forged an alliance with the other Deputy Prime Minister, Tajani, who shares the Prime Minister’s views on Ukraine. So much so that he has stated on several occasions that “the package is ready”, when in reality the details are still being fine-tuned and finalised. These details, in any case, will remain largely confidential and will be passed through COPASIR, in all likelihood after the US mid-term elections. In any case, a new decree will have to be discussed by the end of the year because the old one, which authorises the dispatch of arms, expires on 31 December. Meloni has spoken of a “prevailing trend” within the majority. And it is precisely the alliance with Forza Italia that allows her to keep (for now) the Lega’s headlong rush in check.

However, in the Prime Minister’s view, there is also a further reason not to delay too long in sending arms. In an attempt to broaden her appeal to the centre, agreements have been forged in recent weeks, such as the one with Cateno De Luca’s ‘Sud chiama nord’, as well as with Alternativa Popolare, the former party of Stefano Bandecchi (who left to form his own movement), and the agreement with Gianfranco Rotondi’s DC has been renewed. But Meloni wants more: to create the conditions to attract figures from the centre to the centre-right, such as the Liberal Democrats’ leader Luigi Marattin. But also (and above all) Carlo Calenda. There are many points of common ground with him: just last week in Il Foglio, the Azione senator said that Meloni would be “an excellent European mediator in Ukraine”. Although that agreement lacks the aid package, the one-year postponement of which has always been a thorn in the side of the former Third Way advocate.

Alongside the issue of arms shipments, again in that response to Salvini, Meloni also added that everyone is in agreement on a peaceful solution. This was a reference to the League’s (and others’) insistence on a diplomatic solution which the European Union should be working towards. On this point, the aim is to continue persuading others at EU level. Even if this means straining the relationship (which, to be honest, is no longer idyllic) with the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen. At the very least, to speed up the deployment of a European mediator (the Prime Minister’s own name had been mentioned) who would emphasise the urgency of intervention. And who would serve to keep in check an ally increasingly reluctant to fall in line with, in Meloni’s words, ‘the prevailing view within the majority’.