Meloni’s stance. She is more concerned about a Trump attack on Iran than the election in Israel. Tajani’s income tax

Meloni’s strategy? Picture it with a map and an abacus. On the map, the US Midterms and the Strait of Hormuz are circled, and on the abacus there is Cateno De Luca’s one per cent and Marco Rizzo’s other (possible) one per cent – the allies needed to exceed 42 per cent and secure the majority bonus. Let’s start with the map. More than the vote in Israel, Meloni is convinced that the Midterms will change the world. If Trump loses – and he is the spectre haunting Chigi – he could launch a major attack on Iran. They call it ‘the hot dossier’, and it’s hotter than the Israeli elections. If Netanyahu were to lose today, perhaps the conflict would ease, but the government remains sceptical about peace. Why isn’t Meloni talking about these elections? Because, as Chigi puts it: “We still remember when they used to say: ‘Ah, if Meloni comes to power…’”. And what if Trump’s support is halved? The answer: “It changes the world”. Trump is the orange swan.

She will never state it publicly, but it is clear that Meloni does not approve of Netanyahu’s ‘drift’. She will never admit it, but she would not be displeased if a different government were to be formed in Israel. She believes that a change might even ease tensions in Italy – those pro-Palestinian marches that have Netanyahu in their sights. In this world held in Trump’s grip, who plays burraco with Putin – so to speak – Meloni is pushing for a negotiator who speaks on behalf of Europe. Meloni commented on yesterday’s telephone call between Putin and Jonas Gahr Store, the Norwegian Prime Minister, and Alexander Stubb, the Finnish Prime Minister. Both are friends of Italy, “and have always supported Ukraine”.

Meloni has come to believe that Europe is falling into Trump’s clutches and that, as Tremonti is always saying, ‘Russia will become China’s Belarus’. There is a hint of venom – clearly anti-French – in the paragraph of Meloni’s statement regarding Store and Stubb: “Europe must decide who represents it and must do so quickly; it cannot continue to act in a disorganised manner and in formats that change every week”. Readers in Paris, upon reading this statement, retort: “Wasn’t it Italy that was seeking to build bridges with Trump?”.

Let’s turn to the figures. Today is the day of the Council of Ministers meeting on the budget, and a vocal Giorgetti, writing in Festa di Moneta – the economic supplement of Il Giornale – suggests that it will be presented as a budget for young people. Giorgetti says that Italy’s credit rating should be confirmed, and that an agreement has been reached with the banks (within FdI, they believe the banks’ recent coolness is due to the Intesa-MPS deal: “Perhaps there are those who expected more warmth from Meloni”). Today at 3 pm, Giorgetti will don his apron and take on the role of a pastry chef: “We have the ingredients; some I’ll use, others I won’t – we’ll choose them and put them all in the oven right now.” There is also a new development: Tajani is proposing to raise the IRPEF threshold by increasing the banks’ contribution.

Turning to the substantive issue, the PD is criticizing the risky manoeuvres of Giovanni Donzelli and Arianna Meloni—these marriages of convenience with Cateno De Luca and Marco Rizzo—but it is that very PD that is allowing itself to be tainted by Acerbo and Rifondazione Comunista, who support Hamas. It is a decision by Schlein, despite resistance from Fratoianni and Bonelli, who advised her: “Don’t do it, you’ll be making a mistake.” De Luca and Rizzo could bring Meloni that decisive two per cent, whilst Schlein, in order to gain one point, risks losing three. Meloni’s calculation is as follows: FdI stands at 29.3 per cent, FI at 7.4 per cent, the Lega at 5.4 per cent, and Noi Moderati at one per cent. By adding De Luca and Rizzo to these long-standing allies, she reaches 45.1 per cent. This addition costs her very little. Rizzo is content to settle for two per thousand in future, and that is enough for him. These are the tricks of old foxes. Schlein’s PD is far too immature.