SWG poll: Vannacci drops two points. Coalitions neck and neck, both above the 42 per cent threshold

The latest poll by the SWG polling organisation for La7 shows a dramatic drop in support for Futuro Nazionale. Vannacci’s party has fallen to 5.6 per cent, down 2 per cent on the previous poll. This significant drop has gone entirely to Fratelli d’Italia, which has risen to 29.7 per cent, whilst the Lega has lost a further 0.3 per cent, standing at 5.1 per cent, with Forza Italia as the second-largest party in the majority at 7.2 per cent. Overall (and therefore including Noi Moderati and Sud chiama Nord, both at 1 per cent), the centre-right coalition stands at 44 per cent. This is two percentage points above the threshold required to qualify for the majority bonus under the new electoral law, but 0.6 points below the 44.6 per cent held by the centre-left, assuming it is led by Elly Schlein. In this scenario, the two coalitions would find themselves in a heart-stopping neck-and-neck race. The PD is the leading opposition party with 21.2 per cent, followed by the M5S with 11.8 per cent, then AVS with 6.4 per cent, Italia Viva with 2.4 per cent, Più Europa with 1.3 per cent, to which must be added a further 1.5 per cent from the other centrist lists in the broad coalition (Progetto Civico, Più Uno and PSI).

Outside the major parties, in addition to Futuro Nazionale, there would be Azione, with 3.1 per cent, and the other centrist lists (Lib Dem and Ora) with 1.3 per cent.