Renzi’s guide for the confused centrist: “Better to have 2 per cent but be relevant”. How the centre is shifting

“Anyone who calls themselves a reformist and says ‘never with the left’ condemns themselves to irrelevance.” This, in a nutshell, is the conclusion Matteo Renzi draws in his latest Enews. In it, after sending his best wishes to his grandmother (aged 106), he defends himself against those who criticise him for being in a coalition with the centre-left and, as a result, having to compromise on his own ideas. “So let’s be clear. You form alliances with parties that have different ideas, and you find compromises. Furthermore, given that we have a proportional representation system, everyone votes for the party they prefer,” says the leader of Italia Viva. “But not voting for a party simply because it is in an alliance with others means hoping that your party will secure 51 per cent on its own. Which would be an excellent idea, mind you. But a bit difficult to achieve – and not just for Italia Viva.”

After reassuring Renzi’s supporters (“None of you will have to vote for Conte or Bonelli: you’ll be voting for Italia Viva”), the former prime minister addresses directly those who would only vote for him if he were standing alone. “Let’s say we go it alone. And that we get 5 per cent, OK? Or even 8 per cent, like four years ago. Do you know what happens? Nothing. That 5 per cent counts for nothing in the political debate. Whereas if we form an alliance, we’ll be decisive,” writes Renzi.

According to the latest polls, Iv currently has 2.4 per cent of potential voters. “Do you know how this story ends? That thanks to our 2.4 per cent, the centre-left wins, Meloni goes home and we are the deciding factor in the victory. So,” he says, “anyone who calls themselves a reformist and says ‘never with the left’ condemns themselves to irrelevance. Will they get 5 per cent? Perhaps. But when they do get 5 per cent, do you know where that puts them? Nowhere. Because they’ll be sitting on the sidelines for another five years whilst Meloni goes to the Quirinale,” notes Renzi, emphasising: “I’d rather have 2 per cent and be decisive than have 5 per cent and be irrelevant. That’s all there is to it.”

Renzi’s anti-irrelevance strategy seems to have caught on with other members of the centre as well. Speaking to Il Foglio, Luigi Marattin, a former MP for Iv, spoke of the utmost openness shown by his Liberal Democratic Party towards anyone who expresses an interest in the proposals it puts forward. “We are willing to form an alliance with anyone who shares our four proposals on education, nuclear power and public spending cuts, which we believe can improve the lives of Italians,” said the MP, adding, however, that “it doesn’t take a political analyst to realise that certain proposals lie outside today’s centre-left. ‘In fact, they’re reporting me to the public prosecutor’s office.’ The door is open, then, to the centre-right (but without Vannacci, Marattin clarifies, though he does not foresee any risk of incursions by the general). Following Renzi’s playbook, the 1.4 per cent secured by the Libdem might not – in fact – be insignificant. In fact, it would be useful to the centre-right in unlocking the majority bonus under the new electoral law. This is a goal that FdI has already set its sights on by striking a deal with Cateno De Luca’s ‘Sud chiama Nord’. “If we’re of interest, they should ask the centre-right,” Marattin told us.

On the opposite side – or rather, right at the centre – are Carlo Calenda and Pina Picierno. According to Marattin, Azione and Spazio Pubblico are now ‘going their own way’. A photograph published a few days ago shows the senator and the Vice-President of the European Parliament sitting at a table to ‘organise future events for Azione and Spazio Pubblico’. The next event is scheduled for Saturday 7 November in Bologna, where they will press ahead with the project for an “alternative to bipopulism” and a “liberal, populist and pro-European centre that has clear ideas on the fundamental values of our foreign policy”, to quote the leader of Azione.