Falling approval ratings and electoral law: the web of complications trapping Vannacci

“In the end, Meloni really did have the better of him – unbelievable.” Among those who follow political tactics closely – even in Parliament, even on the left – the topic is beginning to circulate with some persistence. It is not just a question of numbers. For a couple of weeks now, the General’s figures have been falling, giving the impression that Futuro Nazionale’s momentum has now reached a standstill. On the contrary. The polls are beginning to show a gradual decline in the party’s share of the vote. Yesterday, Youtrend (in a report for Agi) put Futuro Nazionale at 7.2 per cent, down 0.5 per cent. This is the most significant drop among all parties since the start of October, resulting in Forza Italia regaining the lead (at 7.4 per cent).

The combination of this fall in electoral support, the uncertainty surrounding the date of the general election and the new electoral law – in particular the rules governing parties which, like Fn, must collect signatures to stand for election – represents the web spun by Giorgia Meloni and FdI to trap the general, creating a dilemma for him that might even seem paradoxical: putting together competitive candidate lists whilst stemming the exodus of centre-right leaders and MPs to Futuro Nazionale. Just like in one of those AI videos so beloved by Vannacci’s followers, in this story Giorgia Ragno has devoured her prey, spitting out nothing but the glitter. You can choose the background music yourselves.

And to think that Vannacci has a party with no leaders, yet one brimming with potential votes. In short, it is the ultimate magnet for outgoing MPs seeking a return to Parliament. And indeed, in recent months, membership has surged. At the end of May, Edoardo Ziello, Laura Ravetto, Rossano Sasso (all from the Lega) and Emanuele Pozzolo joined Futuro Nazionale – the ‘dirty dozen’ who formed the FN contingent within the Mixed Group in the Chamber of Deputies. Shortly afterwards, in June, Domenico Furgiuele, Attilio Pierro and Davide Bergamini also joined the group. In mid-September, there was another addition with the arrival of Tommaso Calderone from Forza Italia. The same was happening in various Italian regional councils, with an independent Futuro Nazionale group even forming within the Lega-led Lombardy Regional Council. It seemed like an unstoppable wave. Instead, the flow suddenly came to a halt, along with Futuro Nazionale’s upward momentum in the polls and the heavy defeat suffered by Vannacco’s candidate, Domenico Giannetta, in the by-elections in Calabria in mid-September. A crucial role in this halt was played by a convoluted yet devastating mechanism, which combines a decline in support with the provisions of the new electoral law.

As he can count on support from the Mixed Group in the Chamber of Deputies, Vannacci does not need to collect the more than 400,000 signatures that have been causing Alessandro Onorato such concern for days, but only 1,500 per constituency. This is a hurdle that can easily be overcome. The issue, in fact, is not about numbers, but about timing. New parties have just a few weeks to collect signatures; the signatures expire 180 days after the first one is signed and must be finalised by the day the lists are submitted to the Ministry of the Interior. But that is not all. The collection must be carried out with the electoral lists already prepared and completed, complete with lead candidates and candidates seeking a place on the list via preferential votes. In short, the uncertainty surrounding the date of the vote and the tight deadlines for collecting signatures mean that the general must be prepared, with the lists to be finalised as early as today, well before the variable deadline at the end of the parliamentary term.

But who, amongst the leaders unsure of their re-election within Forza Italia, the Lega and FdI, would risk switching to Futuro Nazionale today, with falling poll ratings and an uncertain future? This dilemma becomes even more pressing for the candidates who really matter – those who can aspire to a seat partly thanks to their personal popularity through preferential votes. And so, faced with the choice between heading a list with an uncertain chance of success in the general election and a place on the list of their original party, they might opt for the latter. For Vannacci, this is yet another headache.