The PD fears the AVs-M5S alliance and is awaiting Fratoianni and Bonelli’s decision on the primaries. Schlein and Conte meet with Franceschini

Calculations and suspicions. And then an unknown factor: Avs. Because one person isn’t worth one, of course. But what happens if two are worth as much as the PD, or perhaps a little more? Following what the Democrats have dubbed ‘Elly Pride’, the long-distance exchanges between the two allies-turned-rivals, Schlein and Conte, are set to cross paths once more in Rome, at the Teatro Sala Umberto, under the auspices of Dario Franceschini. The former Minister of Culture’s latest literary work – La Fiuma – is being presented. The (political) audience is a distinguished one; the hall is full. There is a very large contingent from the PD, and not only them. Maria Elena Boschi, Paolo Gentiloni and even Gianni Letta are in attendance. The PD secretary arrives at the start and takes her seat; a little later, the leader of the M5S also arrives, citing, first and foremost, his ‘personal friendship’ with Franceschini. The two do not sit next to each other, but it is a small gesture nonetheless. The discussion turns to women and rights, and feminism – themes central to the novel. There is also room for the Constitution “which Italians have recently defended”, as the author points out. But dominating the discussion, behind the stage and the literature, are the usual issues within the broad coalition and the new tensions that have emerged following the PD executive committee meeting. So much so that Serena Dandini – on stage with Viola Ardone and Paola Turci – tries to joke about it, addressing Schlein and Conte: “We’ve locked the theatre doors; stay here until you’ve written the manifesto.” If only it were that easy these days. Franceschini, who spoke at the Democratic Party assembly to support his leader, issues a warning: “We need the parties’ ideas for the manifesto, but then we need to synthesise them.”

Advertisements aside, it will not be straightforward. Not least because fears and political calculations have been emerging among the Democrats in recent hours. They are also keeping an eye on the polls, and the latest one – published yesterday by Il Fatto – has raised a few questions: the PD remains the leading force in the broad coalition but is once again below 20 per cent. And once again, following last week’s Pagnoncelli poll, it appears to have less support than the M5S-AVS alliance. Lately, the two parties have been acting in unison on various issues. No one in the Movement or amongst the red-greens appreciated the remarks made by Schlein during the PD executive committee meeting. And yesterday Bonelli reiterated this: “We debate ideas, not who counts for more or less, based on the numbers. Numbers matter, but ideas matter just as much.’ These words echo a view also held by Conte. Bonelli also continues to insist that the primaries – which he describes as ‘divisive’ – should be avoided; he is not convinced by the Nazareno’s argument that mobilising polling stations will provide the momentum needed to defeat Meloni. Some doubts – as is well known – are also circulating amongst many high-ranking Democratic Party figures. The leadership will rally behind the party leader, but has noted certain points of convergence between the PD and the AVS, which have become more frequent in recent weeks: first the joint standstill following Schlein’s letter to Meloni on energy, then the Naza debate organised by the M5S and AVS, which Schlein decided to attend only at the last minute, and furthermore the firm opposition to the anti-Semitism bill, whilst the PD is torn apart internally. And above all, the refusal to supply arms to Kyiv: the issue on which Conte intends to stake his claim. At the Nazareno, therefore, they have begun to ask: what will the red-and-greens do? Bonelli, hopes aside, no longer seems to believe in the ‘third candidate’, despite the fact that talk of it has resurfaced. Roberto Gualtieri in particular, but also Gaetano Manfredi and Pier Luigi Bersani – the latter with a certain degree of tactical manoeuvring on the part of the Five Star Movement. “If there’s no political agreement, there’s not much we can do,” he states for the record.

In short, all that remains are the campaign booths, the rules, and a policy agreement to be reached as soon as possible. But will Avs have its own candidate? “We’ll announce it in due course.” The Green leader is playing for time, even though in recent weeks both he and Fratoianni had hinted that the Red-Greens would put forward their own candidate, assuring: “He’ll be a strong contender.” In the meantime, the picture has changed, as have the convictions: because the primaries and the choice of candidate – one of the two leaders or a third party? – could have direct repercussions on the ‘red-greens’. Bonelli is said to be more cautious, whilst Fratoianni is more inclined to field a candidate from the AVS camp in any case, to stand firm on his own identity issues and to avoid losing media exposure and votes. One form of compensation could come via the single list provided for under the new electoral law, with the majority bonus. But what if the broad coalition fails to make it? Discussions will continue, including at the programme-planning table, with the realisation that the contest between Conte and Schlein also hinges on the AVS choice. And the next moves by the allies-rivals.