Schlein’s ongoing disputes and a new fear for the PD: Is Conte thinking of going it alone?

Elly Schlein has a lot on her plate. The secretary of the Democratic Party is well aware that factions within her party are getting restless. It is not just the reformists; although the secretary is convinced that Lorenzo Guerini, whilst firm on certain issues such as Ukraine, is not disloyal to her. The former Defence Minister is one of the few Democratic Party leaders who is not part of her innermost circle, with whom the leader maintains constant contact through communication and consultation. The reformists’ position, after all, is well known, and Schlein does not fear being stabbed in the back by them. Those who worry her most at this stage – because she cannot fathom where they ultimately intend to end up (do they want the third spot?) – are the members of her party who belong to the so-called ‘Montepulciano faction’. The PD secretary is closely monitoring their moves. The fact that she has asked this party faction to postpone the three-day event scheduled for the end of the month—because she intends to hold the National Assembly on precisely those days—is no coincidence.

There has been some grumbling – more or less under the breath – directed at the secretary, then, but there has also been grumbling directed at the party leader. Lorenzo Guerini’s reformists, as well as some members of the faction led by the former governor of Emilia-Romagna, have taken a dim view of the fact that Stefano Bonaccini has been so slow to convene the National Assembly, which is due to approve the extension of the secretary’s term of office.

But the party is in turmoil in Brussels too. It is said that the reformists, having lost a prestigious post following Pina Picierno’s departure from the party, are now demanding compensation. Perhaps in the form of Nicola Zingaretti’s top job, if, as it seems, the former secretary intends to give it up to take up the post of Vice-President of the European Parliament.

There is, however, another ongoing issue that is causing concern for the Nazareno. It involves Giuseppe Conte and the Five Star Movement. What game is the former prime minister playing? Rumours are intensifying within the PD that the M5S leader could scupper the coalition talks. The excuse? His firm and repeated intention not to ‘water down’ the programme points voted for by the Five Star Movement’s supporters. Among the PD MPs, there is speculation that, should the new electoral law be passed, it could play into Conte’s hands because, with the abolition of single-member constituencies, the leader of the Five Star Movement would find it easier to stand alone in the elections than he would under the current system – as was the case in 2022. In short, under single-member constituencies, if it decided not to form an alliance, the Five Star Movement would win fewer seats than it would under Meloni’s reform, which is proportional. Indeed, a Five Star Movement standing alone would be unlikely to win any parliamentary seats in the constituencies. Following this line of reasoning, Giorgia Meloni would certainly not form an alliance with Roberto Vannacci at that point and would go all out to maintain the coalition that currently supports her in government. And with a bit of luck, there would be a dead heat… At that point, the game would be wide open for everyone, including Conte, who has far greater flexibility and freedom of manoeuvre than the PD leadership.