Not even Vannacci can make Schlein win

Yesterday, the unknown finally became a figure. In the Reggio Calabria by-election, Vannacci’s candidate, Domenico Giannetta, narrowly missed out on 11 per cent, whilst the seat went to Fabio Roscioli, the centre-right candidate, with around 51 per cent. Cardiologist Frank Benedetto, the PD and M5S candidate, stopped at 36.6 per cent. In short, the general did not cause Giorgia Meloni’s coalition to lose, nor would he have secured a victory for the centre-left even if he had stood shoulder to shoulder with Elly Schlein, with Giuseppe Conte brushing his amaranth beret, Nicola Fratoianni polishing his combat boots and Laura Boldrini sewing the epaulettes onto his jacket. For his first test running under his own banner – until now it had only been opinion polls – the unapologetically right-wing general had chosen the most moderate of the available candidates in Calabria, Giannetta, leader of the Forza Italia parliamentary group until the summer and a man with strong support, having secured over ten thousand votes in the last regional elections. Yesterday, he secured 10.9 per cent.

This leaves open a question that political scientists would call one of attribution – and which in Reggio is posed with less elegance – namely, whether Vannacci brought votes to his candidate or caused him to lose them. Who knows? The general had promised to transform Reggio into his own Saxony-Anhalt, the German region where the far-right AfD won. Voters, however, have granted him a very respectable percentage, though still modest for a ‘X Mas’ uprising. The Allied command at Palazzo Chigi, led by Giorgia Eisenhower, has thus received the first verifiable news from the campaign, and will draw whatever conclusions it sees fit. For months, talk shows and opinion polls have portrayed the general as the great unknown on the right, with an enthusiasm in which it was difficult to distinguish civic concern from gratitude for the viewing figures. Yesterday, the unknown became a figure, and that figure does not alter the outcome, particularly in a single-member constituency, where it usually takes very little to overturn the result. The general election will be a different matter, but from here on, the centre-right can begin to think more calmly than the television schedules have allowed. Not least because the centre-right is still in the running – Vannacci too, even if he hasn’t made a breakthrough – whilst the left, which was counting on the general to secure victory, has discovered that even he is not enough for them.