A victory for the ‘Azzurri’ in Calabria, but which version of Forza Italia won? Mulé and Nevi have their say

“We’ve won by a landslide!”, says Roberto Occhiuto, the ‘Azzurri’ governor of Calabria and national deputy secretary of Forza Italia, following days of controversy over the Vannaccia-style doctored photo of the ‘Azzurri’ undersecretary (and his partner) Matilde Siracusano, as soon as the by-election results became clear, awarding the vacant seat – with 51.02 per cent of the vote – to Fabio Roscioli, former treasurer of Forza Italia and a close associate of the Berlusconi family. The scale of the victory is also evident in the photograph posted by Occhiuto on social media: he is shown celebrating with the Forza Italia mayor of Reggio Calabria, Francesco ‘Ciccio’ Cannizzaro, the leader of the Forza Italia senators, Stefania Craxi, and Senator Claudio Lotito, president of Lazio and owner of Reggina Calcio.

And so yes, FI has won a seat in the Chamber of Deputies in Calabria, leaving the centre-left candidate Frank Benedetto on 36.59 per cent (a lesson for the procrastinating Elly Schlein to the power of three: even if divided, the right can win) and pulling ahead of Roberto Vannacci, who had fielded the former Forza Italia ‘preference candidate’ Domenico Giannetta, who instead stalled at 10.94 per cent (a lesson for Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni squared: we might as well not take it on, the general). Meanwhile, the Prime Minister was saying that the by-election ‘rewards’ a united coalition. But in Calabria, one wonders, did Forza Italia actually win, or was it one of the two ‘Forza Italia’ factions that overlap along blurred boundaries centred on the secretary, Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani, on the one hand, and Occhiuto (and the Berlusconi family), on the other? The fact is that, mid-afternoon, the ‘Azzurri’ Minister for the Public Administration, Paolo Zangrillo – the man who, after nine years, resigned from the Piedmont regional secretariat of FI in disagreement with the national secretariat’s line – issued a statement that also seems somewhat like a message for the higher-ups: “The values of Forza Italia have triumphed”. The values, not Tajani, who nevertheless ecumenically praises the entire ‘Azzurri’ world – and perhaps even himself: “Forza Italia has won a landslide victory in the by-elections, leading the centre-right with our candidate Roscioli. Thanks to everyone who worked towards this extraordinary result, starting with Roberto Occhiuto and Ciccio Cannizzaro. This confirms the strength of our party on the ground, its deep roots amongst the people, and its ability to attract citizens and various groups through serious, shared and popular ideas”.

But who really won, deep down and in the end? Giorgio Mulè, Deputy Speaker of the Chamber of Deputies and former Undersecretary of Defence in the Draghi government, focuses instead on who lost: “Saxony,” he tells Il Foglio, “turned out to be a mere pebble.” (Occhiuto would later go so far as to say that it turned out to be “an electoral stone”). “And Futuro Nazionale – which wanted to be the AfD,” continues Mulè, “is missing a 4 at the front to reach 48 per cent. The show of strength turned out to be a display of extraordinary weakness, all the more so as their candidate, a former member of Forza Italia, brought with him around 10,000 first-choice votes. A Waterloo for the general.” A few dissidents within FI might argue that victory comes when the party leadership does not make the decisions. “Forza Italia wins, firmly rooted in the region with Occhiuto and Cannizzaro,” says Mulè, “a Forza Italia that asserts itself when it proves to be a cohesive party. Vannacci and the ‘broad coalition’ that never materialised are left playing the role of Grumpy Smurf with Schlein – along the lines of: ‘I hate those who scrap the road tax’ – or SpongeBob’s Squidward, the grumpy octopus, with Giuseppe Conte.”

Returning to the centre-right, Raffaele Nevi, MP and national spokesperson for Forza Italia, tells Il Foglio that the result in Calabria is “an extraordinary victory for a Forza Italia that was under attack from all sides and which has instead demonstrated that it has a very firm grip on the region”. Yet Forza Italia was described as being torn apart from within, with sections calling for a change of leadership. “The atmosphere within the party is excellent, and there is always turnover. Rather, in the wake of Vannacci’s failure, one thing is clear: the centre-right can win even without him, and the contest is always, in any case, between the centre-right and the centre-left”. To quote Mayor Cannizzaro in his response to the Vannacci-style epithet hurled at the people of Reggio during the election campaign (“he dangles carrots in front of you as if you were donkeys”), “curnutu sì tu e cu nun t’u dice” – you’re the one with horns, and whoever doesn’t tell you so.