Polls: the decision on Vannacci and the primaries. YouTrend’s survey results

The latest YouTrend polls for SktTg24 show a largely stable political situation. Within this picture, however, it is worth noting that the Democratic Party has lost over one percentage point in three weeks. Indeed, the Democrats have fallen by 1.1 per cent compared with the 4 September survey, reaching 21.1 per cent. On the other hand, Fratelli d’Italia remains the country’s leading party, holding steady at 26.5 per cent, whilst Forza Italia and the Lega are gaining ground, standing at 7.3 per cent (+0.2) and 5.1 per cent (+0.7) respectively; meanwhile, Noi Moderati has gained 0.1 per cent and risen to 1 per cent. Futuro Nazionale continues to grow and, according to the polls, is the country’s fourth-largest party at 8.1 per cent (+0.2).

Among the opposition, the Five Star Movement and the Green-Left Alliance are the only ones to make gains: Giuseppe Conte’s party rises by 0.6 per cent to 13.2 per cent, whilst Nicola Fratoianni and Angelo Bonelli’s party reaches 5.9 per cent (+0.1). Azione loses 0.5 per cent to stand at 3.4 per cent, Italia viva loses 0.2 per cent to fall to 2.2 per cent, and the Liberal Democratic Party loses 0.2 per cent to reach 1.1 per cent – the same percentage as Ora!. 

The majority of centre-right voters would like to see Roberto Vannacci join the coalition. This is the main finding of the latest poll carried out by YouTrend for SktTg24. According to the survey, 51 per cent of the electorate of Fratelli d’Italia, Lega, Forza Italia and Noi Moderati would accept him into the ‘Futuro Nazionale’ alliance. Only 31 per cent are against it, whilst the remaining 18 per cent did not express an opinion. The highest percentages of those in favour of this scenario are found amongst the voters of FdI and Fn, at 59 per cent and 56 per cent respectively; amongst the other members of the coalition, however, 40 per cent are against it (whilst only 30 per cent are in favour).

Among voters who are entirely opposed to Vannacci joining the coalition, only 18 per cent would stick to their original vote (with the highest percentage found amongst supporters of Futuro Nazionale, at 26 per cent), whilst the remaining 13 per cent would either choose another party or abstain (amongst supporters of the Lega, Forza Italia and Noi Moderati, this figure rises to 18 per cent).

Turning to the wider picture, YouTrend has found that, should the centre-left hold primaries to select the coalition’s prime ministerial candidate ahead of the forthcoming elections, the secretary of the Democratic Party, Elly Schlein, is ahead of the other challengers: the leader of the Five Star Movement, Giuseppe Conte, and the mayor of Genoa, Silvia Salis, who has not yet revealed her intentions regarding a possible candidacy. YouTrend outlines two scenarios. If turnout were to be high, at 61 per cent, Schlein would win with 30.9 per cent of the vote, Conte would come second with 27.2 per cent, whilst Salis would come third (17.3 per cent). In the second scenario – with a turnout of 34 per cent – the result would remain the same, but the Democratic Party secretary would win by a clearer margin. She would secure 38.6 per cent, Conte 22.3 per cent and Salis 20.7 per cent.

However, primaries do not appear to be the preferred solution amongst voters for the PD, M5S, AVS and centrist parties. According to YouTrend, only 26 per cent of the total would favour them, whilst 41 per cent would like the leader of the political party with the most votes to become the candidate for Prime Minister. Meanwhile, 25 per cent would prefer a coalition agreement, whilst the remaining 8 per cent are undecided.

The majority of Italians – 58 per cent – view the suspension of road tax in 2027 for cars and motorbikes up to 80 kWm negatively, as they regard the measure as a way of winning electoral support. By contrast, 33 per cent see the measure as positive because it helps families.