Conte’s lead over Schlein leaves the PD in a dead end

Nando Pagnoncelli’s poll – the one published in Corriere della Sera which showed Giuseppe Conte with a clear lead over Elly Schlein in a potential leadership contest – has caused quite a stir within the Democratic Party. And for the first time, even amongst the secretary’s most loyal supporters, there has been a certain sense of dismay. “Are we sure we should go ahead with the primaries, given the situation?”, was the question asked by more than one person during a sort of informal meeting via mobile phone. But Igor Taruffi stood his ground: “This is the line we’re taking and we’re not budging from it,” was the directive from the PD’s organisational chief.

The Democrats have many concerns regarding that poll. Firstly: if it really were to end like this, with a victory for the leader of the Five Star Movement, would Elly Schlein have to resign? Such an event, just a few months before the general election, would be traumatic to say the least, but even pretending nothing has happened would be difficult. Secondly: if the former prime minister were indeed to win at the polling stations, it is clear that his candidacy as prime minister for the entire coalition would bring votes to the Five Star Movement at the expense of the PD. Some even fear that the PD could end up trailing behind the Five Star Movement. This concern may well be unfounded, but it clearly illustrates the dismay within the PD. A PD with fewer votes also means a PD with fewer MPs and senators in Parliament, and this is a problem that has unsettled all those who have served several terms and were hoping for an exemption to stand for re-election. But even those aspiring to enter Parliament for the first time fear they may not succeed.

The concern of the party’s minority faction – the reformists, to be clear – is, however, quite different. Namely, that Schlein, in her bid to catch up with Conte and avoid being overtaken by him, will shift even further to the left and end up making concessions to the Five Star Movement even on the issue of Ukraine. At that point, what could the reformists do? Splitting the party just a few months before the elections is impossible, but they would be forced to ask the National Assembly for the opportunity to field a second candidate in the primaries alongside the party leader. Only by fielding Giorgio Gori, on a very clear platform regarding Ukraine, as well as the issues of rearmament and NATO, could they play a political role and avoid having to agree to positions that are not their own. It is noteworthy, however, that Schlein has no intention of granting the reformists this opportunity. The party must field a single candidate because, in the primaries, all the PD’s resources must be channelled behind the party leader to prevent Conte from getting the upper hand.

In short, problems abound within the Democratic Party, and those in favour of selecting a third candidate without holding primaries have resurfaced. However, it is reported that, at this stage, in addition to Schlein’s clear opposition to this proposal, Conte’s stance has now also hardened. The leader of the Five Star Movement, who up to a point had been open to this option, now seems determined to hold primaries without any ifs or buts.