So when is the vote?

Just a few days after setting the record for the longest-serving government in the history of the Republic, Giorgia Meloni is reportedly already considering when to call another general election. She certainly intends to do so before the natural end of the parliamentary term, which is due next autumn, but the Prime Minister must contend with her government allies, who are more inclined to wait until October. At present, therefore, there are two possible scenarios within the centre-right: either to call Italians to the polls in April, holding the parliamentary elections to coincide with the local elections (in Rome, Milan, Naples, Bologna and Turin) – and this is the Prime Minister’s idea – or, as the two Deputy Prime Ministers, Salvini and Tajani, would prefer, to wait until the end of the five-year term. However, in the last few hours, another scenario has also been circulating, which would strike a balance between the two positions: holding elections in October 2027 for both the parliamentary elections and those in the major cities. An autumn of elections, then, Quirinale permitting and with the Vannacci factor still a wild card.

The idea behind her reasoning is to avoid giving the impression of a government that is merely waiting for the end of the parliamentary term. For this reason, the date to mark in red – in the ideal plans of Meloni and the Under-Secretary to the Prime Minister, Giovanbattista Fazzolari – would be 18 April, with the tacit approval of the opposition, particularly the Democratic Party. And for more than one reason. Not only would the pension eligibility periods for MPs and senators come into effect four days earlier, but in this way the current government majority would prevent former General Roberto Vannacci from further increasing his support – which is causing the centre-right no small amount of concern, even if so far it is more hypothetical than real. There are other reasons as well, one of which was highlighted by Luca Ciriani, the Minister for Relations with Parliament. If the government were to take office before the summer, it would have more time to consider the next Budget Bill: “A vote in the spring would be the more sensible option compared to October,” said the minister.

To help her allies come to terms with such early elections, Meloni is reportedly considering, as we mentioned earlier, combining the general election with the local elections, which will also involve several major cities, such as Rome, Milan, Naples, Bologna, Florence and Turin. According to the Constitution, local elections must be held between 15 April and 15 June of that year, which is why 18 April becomes the decisive date, as it would be the first available Sunday for the polls. However, the cities up for election are all currently held by the centre-left, and it will be difficult for the governing coalition to retain them; yet the centre-right’s hope is that, by combining the two votes, the outcome might be different – at least as far as Milan is concerned following Sala’s departure. Should Meloni’s proposal come to fruition, the Prime Minister would have to go to the Quirinale to tender her resignation; in that case, as happened with Draghi, the President of the Republic, Sergio Mattarella, would ask the Prime Minister to refer the government crisis to Parliament. Such a move would come at a high political cost, but would be more acceptable to her electorate if the end of the parliamentary term were to coincide with an election day.

The League and Forza Italia have, on several occasions, shown themselves to be more inclined to wait for the natural end of the parliamentary term because, in this way, they could capitalise on the support that might arise as a result of the forthcoming Budget Bill, which at this stage would be the last one before the elections. But that is not all. Tajani and Salvini’s reasoning – or rather, their hope – is that Futuro Nazionale will lose momentum at the first real electoral test, compared to the current 7–8 per cent attributed to it by the polls, and that it will emerge weakened by the time of the general election in the autumn. Furthermore, holding the election in October would give the League an extra chance to pass the law on ‘differentiated autonomy’, a long-standing flagship policy. But the League secretary’s aim is also to set a polling date as far away from today as possible, as this would allow internal party disputes to be resolved.

The most likely scenario, therefore, remains that of an election in October; however, this opens up a third possibility, namely elections in autumn 2027 for both Parliament and the major cities. For the time being, the debate is still unfolding behind the scenes, but the time will soon come when a decision must be made. Meloni has already set that date, and it will be immediately after the approval of the Stabilicum.