Onorato is banking on La Vadera in the big game in the wide midfield

Ismaele La Vardera is the surprise candidate brought in at the end of July by Alessandro Onorato to bolster his Progetto Civico. According to the latest BiDiMedia polls, he is the Sicilians’ favourite candidate ahead of the upcoming regional elections (23 per cent), and his party, Controcorrente, leads Fratelli d’Italia on the island by seven points (19.8 per cent versus 12.6 per cent).

The exponential rise in support for the party led by the former Iena presenter, which celebrated its first anniversary last February, could prove to be a factor capable of influencing the political balance even at national level. It is precisely for this reason that, a few weeks ago, on 30 July, La Vardera formalised the alliance with Progetto Civico Italia, a political movement founded by Onorato. The leader of Controcorrente will serve as president, whilst Carmelo Miceli will head the confederation in Sicily. During July, Controcorrente’s broad support in Sicily began to have a tangible effect on national political polls as well, which place La Vardera’s movement at around 1 per cent. In short, Onorato’s move has a specific aim: to boost the popularity of his movement and secure more bargaining chips to play at the main table of the broad centre ahead of the general election, where, alongside him, there are Matteo Renzi’s Italia Viva, Riccardo Magi’s Più Europa and, in a few days’ time, the political project of the former director of the Revenue Agency, Ernesto Maria Ruffini, will also be launched. On the other hand, La Vardera’s commitment to supporting Onorato (and therefore the centre-left) is a signal that the former Iena presenter is sending to the PD, the M5S and the rest of the coalition ahead of the Sicilian elections, where the alliance landscape remains completely up in the air. “We have decided to continue,” La Vardera said during the press conference with Onorato, “a path we embarked upon a year ago with what, for us, is the only project that fits perfectly with the characteristics of our Movement.” 

And, after all, it would not be the first time that the widespread support for a movement that originated purely in Sicily has been exploited to influence national elections. We have already seen this with Cateno De Luca, the former ‘godfather’ and now a major opponent of La Vardera. In 2022, the two of them, together with another former member of Le Iene, Dino Giarrusso, led Sud chiama Nord to elect two MPs in the single-member constituencies of Messina, and helped the movement secure 14 per cent of the vote in the regional elections. Even today, its support at national level stands at between 1 and 1.2 per cent.

Alessandro Onorato’s movement, Progetto Civico, was founded in the autumn of 2025. Described as “the party of mayors”, as it is a network of local administrators, it has always been backed by a section of the PD for a different reason: the need to find a fourth, centrist and civic pillar for the broad coalition, capable of preventing that area from falling into the hands of former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi. It was, not coincidentally, Goffredo Bettini who first put forward the idea of something very similar to Progetto Civico; a few days ago,  in these very columns – perhaps spurred on by La Vardera’s arrival – spoke of Progetto Civico as a movement undergoing “incredible expansion” and a “well-held centre”, whilst admitting that Renzi should instead mind his own business because he would be “difficult to conceal within a framework with multiple key figures”. 

An agreement could, however, be reached with Riccardo Magi’s Più Europa, which favours a federation with Progetto Civico precisely to create a centrist alternative to Italia Viva. In this case, there would also be a candidate for the centre-left primaries. “There will be no political manoeuvring,” La Vardera told Onorato, “that could prevent us from standing in the general election.” It is clear, however, that for the small centrist parties, division is a risk. The crux of the matter lies in the so-called ‘anti-splinter group rule’ – an amendment to the new electoral law introduced by Forza Italia – which stipulates that the votes for coalition lists that fall below the 3 per cent threshold will not be counted towards the coalition’s total vote tally. However, the law also states that the top list among the ‘losers’, even if it fails to pass the threshold, will be entitled to elect its representatives on a proportional basis. For Schlein, this is a stumbling block: if Iv and the coalition between Più Europa and Progetto Civico were both to fall below 3 per cent, the broad coalition would risk losing many votes. If, on the other hand, a single list were to be formed, La Vardera’s electoral weight could be utilised by Onorato when drawing up the lists.