The 2050 demographic forecast shows that we do need homes, yes – but for single people

The latest Istat report on population, households and the labour force forecasts that by 2050 there will be 4 million fewer inhabitants in Italy, but 900,000 more households. The decline in population in absolute terms will be offset by an exponential increase in single-person households, and the average household size will decrease (from 2.2 people per household to 1.98). According to Marco Marcatili, director of Lombardini22 – one of Italy’s leading architecture and engineering firms – and president of the B.live Foundation, too little thought is still being given to the impact this transformation is having on the residential property market: “Even today, we are still designing for traditional families, whilst in 30 years’ time over 42 per cent of households will consist of a single person,” he tells Il Foglio. “In Milan, this phenomenon has been visible for some time. However, it has led to the emergence of exorbitantly priced ‘micro-living’ rather than a rethinking of how we build or plan housing policies.” The result is that Milan is losing workers and is becoming less attractive to talent, whilst “the entire debate on housing is approached solely from a financial perspective – that is, in terms of the returns that must be guaranteed to investors to make projects economically viable”. Whilst a heated political and social clash over short-term lettings is underway, the demographic factor takes a back seat when it should be considered a fundamental determining factor. Housing – as the Istat report demonstrates – is also a generational issue. Older people, for example, are the ones with the most square metres at their disposal. One need only look at the figures. Already today, older people living alone account for over a third of the population aged over 65, and their numbers are rising sharply. And this is the age group that owns the largest homes. “We need to devise solutions that facilitate the intergenerational transfer of property,” reflects Marcatili. “Utilising the concept of bare ownership is a viable option, to be developed with the support of the financial sector and through a dedicated fund, based on the needs for independence and the ability to remain in one’s own home expressed by the very elderly. The work of the B.live Foundation, established by Lombardini22, focuses precisely on this aspect.”

In fact, what is happening in Milan and in some other major cities could be summarised in simple terms as follows: young singles and young couples live in flats of thirty to forty square metres, whilst widowers occupy as much as 150 square metres. “The result is that in these cities we are seeing prices for studio flats and one-bedroom flats that are 25–30 per cent higher per square metre than those of larger homes.” Isn’t this simply the result of supply and demand dynamics? “It is,” continues the expert, “but it risks undermining access to housing for the younger generations. In fact, there are currently fewer small flats than are needed, and this is creating serious problems for both the labour market and Milan’s appeal.” In what way? “There are signs that companies based in the Lombard capital are beginning to struggle to find young people to hire because rents are too high and young people do not want to live too far from the city centre, at least initially. It is understandable that at their age they seek the vibrancy and social life that a big city can offer. But it is no coincidence that you see few pushchairs around central Milan, because once they start a family, they move out. This is a trend that is partly natural and partly exacerbated by property prices that are unsustainable relative to wages and the cost of living. In this context, businesses are grappling with the problem of how to continue attracting talent, and the solution currently under consideration is to offer financial support to facilitate access to affordable housing. Lombardini22 is also working on this to help its young architects and engineers.” This debate is also emerging at the trade association level, so much so that on 21 September, Assolombarda will present a proposal on this issue. So will Milan’s high rents end up being borne by private employers? “Proportionally speaking, that is what has already happened with meal vouchers. Financial support becomes a necessary measure when the issue of affordable housing has not yet been effectively addressed in the government’s housing plan, the only certainty of which seems to be the one billion in funding made available for social housing. And what about the price-capped housing for the working class that has been talked about so much? I must say, however, that even in Milan there are no major initiatives in sight.” According to the director of Lombardini22, up until now, housing policy has been discussed in terms of quantity – the number of homes to be built. We need to change our approach. The figures prove it: there is no shortage of homes; the residential property stock in Italy is decidedly abundant, with over 35 million homes, of which, according to Istat data, over 9 million are unused, and a large proportion of these are falling into disrepair or are already dilapidated and therefore unsuitable for the needs of new families. “It is also this mismatch that we need to address, because most of the properties built in the middle of the last century lack flexibility – that is, they cannot be easily converted. Our Foundation tackles this challenge by incorporating a ‘future-proof’ option right from the start of the design process.” In summary, for Marcatili, the new emerging segments on which a housing plan – or at any rate an effective housing policy – should be based, at national or local level, are clear: senior housing (which already attracts hundreds of millions of euros in investment), micro-living for single people, which is already growing rapidly in Milan and to some extent in Rome, whilst seeking to prevent prices from rising, and workforce living, a professional housing offering dedicated to companies requiring solutions for their employees.