Abstention, here we go. An Ipsos-Doxa study for the region on a two-sided phenomenon, with 60 per cent

The Lombardy Region is examining the phenomenon of abstention, which in 2023 reached almost 60 per cent. And without a run-off, meaning the entire electorate was potentially eligible to vote. “A genuine democratic emergency,” states the Bureau of the Lombardy Regional Council, which commissioned Ipsos-Doxa to carry out a study to understand the reasons behind it. “Two main forms of abstention are emerging.” The first is linked to dissatisfaction and negative assessments of institutions and services. Many, disappointed by the perceived incompetence of the political class, are calling for a generational and ideological change: for them, abstention is essentially a choice made to send a message. Others, by contrast, are guided by non-ideological considerations, “judging programmes, policies and candidates on the basis of effectiveness”. And this is a serious wake-up call for a majority that has governed the Pirellone for decades.

“The second, more problematic, broad category of abstainers is that of ‘disaffected abstainers’,” says the study. A deep-seated and structural detachment from politics. They are generally critical of all political parties and express a pessimistic view of the potential for social change: these are mainly people facing economic hardship or a high degree of social marginalisation, belonging for the most part to the middle age groups.” And this spells doom for the entire political class. The seemingly impossible solution proposed by the Ipsos-Doxa researchers highlights the need to “address dissatisfaction through effective public policies, high-quality services and clearer institutional communication, particularly towards young people. Tackling disaffection, however, is more complex: it would require long-term strategies”. To quote Churchill, “success is never final, failure is never fatal”.